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共生思想理论前沿

THE THEORY

“川普衰退”,还是“川普MAGA 2.0”?

发布时间:2025/03/17 公司新闻 浏览次数:18

“Trump Recession” or “Trump MAGA 2.0”?

 

“川普衰退”,还是“川普MAGA 2.0”?

 

By Hong Qian

 

 

共生经济学人综合古典经济学,将奥派经济学的四大发现——1、价值的主观性(消费者对差别劳动的选择偏好);2、金融的高尚性(自利在流通中带来更多利他);3、企业家的伟大性(破坏性创造带来生活方式的再选择);4、市场的可持续有效性(分散的认识与个人决策在试错、纠错动态平衡中臻于完美)——并将其置于共生语境中,进一步发现贯通其中的“共生经济效应(自组织连接动態平衡)”,由此得出人类政治经济组织行为,悉皆遵循“开放降本赋能”成本/收益之经济健康黄金率函数(因变量)关系,将导出全球政治经济组织行为“从资本论的分配经济学,到社会论的共生经济学”的八大转变。

——摘自《共生经济学SYMBIONOMICS》

 

 

自川普正式成为第47任美国总统以来,市场经历了一场恐慌震荡。美股在他上任后的前几周出现大幅下跌,部分媒体和经济学家再唱“川普衰退”论调,诸如“美国通胀即将再起”“美联储将再次加息”“全球投资市场将面临严重危险”“市场会出现幻觉和暴跌”等等,不一而足。

 

那么,到底是“川普衰退”,还是“川普MAGA 2.0”?共生经济学人认为,大概率是“川普MAGA 2.0”(参看《 MAGA 2.0:从保护主义到全球共生战略》http://symbiosism.com.cn/9429.html)!

 

历史将再次证明,“川普衰退”这一论调,仍然是一个政治脸谱化的伪命题。川普政府迅速采取四大关键行动——参看川普作为Make America Great Again政纲的Trump proposes 20 core promises——将向市场释放明确信号,展现美国经济结构健康重构的态势,并逐步重塑全球经济格局新风貌。

 

 

回顾:川普经济政策的核心成功点

 

在川普第一任期(2017-2021年),美国经济总体表现强劲,尤其在GDP增长、就业率、股市表现和制造业回流方面取得重大成就。

 

尽管2020年疫情造成短暂经济衰退,但美国GDP在2020年第三季度强势反弹33.1%,显示出经济韧性。

 

因此,即使用传统GDP衡量,所谓“川普衰退”也是政治操弄,而非经济现实。

 

2025年:川普如何推动经济结构性转变,又保持“不亏”?

 

巴菲特曾说过“赚钱三原则”:不要亏!不要亏!!不要亏!!如今,川普第二任期重点在促进美国的“结构性改变”,同时要保证美国经济“不要亏”。

 

已经过去55天,他的政策重点围绕以下四大举措展开,以应对市场恐慌,重建投资者信心,并刺激经济平稳增长。

 

  1. 取缔过度非法移民,压低租金,降低生活成本

 

川普政府恢复“留在墨西哥”政策,并加快遣返非法移民行动,对经济的影响包括:

 

  • 缓解住房市场压力:非法移民减少导致租房需求下降,房租自然回落,降低美国民众的生活成本。
  • 减少福利支出,提高劳动力市场质量:削减对非法移民的社会福利,同时提高美国本土劳动力的工资水平。

 

这一举措直接纠偏“拜登时代”非法移民激增导致的住房危机,使美国家庭在房租上的负担明显减轻,促进消费信心回升。

 

  1. 恢复石化能源开采,“美欧石化协议”助推欧洲能源独立,俄乌战争结束

 

能源政策的调整是川普经济战略的核心:

 

  • 放宽石化能源开采限制,恢复阿拉斯加与联邦土地上的钻探许可,推动美国能源生产回归高峰。
  • 推动“美欧石化协议”(proposed by Archer Hong Qian’s Symbionomics),欧美深化石化合作,使欧洲减少对俄罗斯能源的依赖,同时增强欧美经济协同效应。这一协议不仅是结束俄乌战争的釜底抽薪之策,更是强化欧美联盟、降低全球能源通胀的重要布局(参看《从<乌美矿产协议>绑定,到<欧美石化协议>开局》http://symbiosism.com.cn/9644.html)。
  • 终结俄乌战争:在欧美能源格局重塑后,俄罗斯能源出口依赖度下降,国际社会得以通过外交手段推动俄乌和谈,促进俄罗斯回归正常国际贸易体系。

 

这一系列政策的连锁效应是:油价下降→运输及生产成本降低→整体通胀压力减轻→美联储降息预期上升→股市回暖。

 

  1. 川普关税战略:推动市场经济全球化3.0

 

川普政府重新调整关税政策,采用“加关税促谈判”的策略,但其核心目标与历史上麦金莱和胡佛的关税保护主义有本质区别。

 

  • 如果说麦金莱(1890年)时代美国经济尚未成为世界经济主导,加关税以保护本土企业为目标有可取之处,而四十年后,胡佛(1930年)时代的经济危机时加关税政策就成了闭关锁国,最终导致世界贸易战,损害了美国经济,甚至成为二战爆发的诱因(参看《我对川普政府关税政策的现实担忧与积极展望》http://symbiosism.com.cn/9685.html)。
  • 川普关税战略,则是以高关税作为公平谈判的筹码,推动双边、多边贸易协议,最终实现“三链趋势下的三零规则”(零关税、零壁垒、零歧视),长期效果:

 

(1)产业链全球优化:通过谈判促成供应链合理配置,提高各国生产效率。

(2)供应链互补互联:鼓励制造业回流美国,同时建立更稳定的全球供应体系。

(3)价值链共生共赢:通过互惠协议,促进全球市场的公平竞争,推动市场经济全球化3.0,即交互主体共生(Intersubjective Symbiosism)的经济全球化。

 

这一策略避免了历史上高关税带来的贸易冲突,而是以精准施策推动更高质量的全球化。

 

短期效果:加征关税,压低债券殖利率(Yield Rate)

 

为了应对美债市场动荡,川普采取了贸易保护措施,通过提高关税来降低美国国债的收益率:

 

  • 扩大对中国和其他国家的关税,缩小贸易逆差,同时迫使美企回流,减少对外依赖。
  • 贸易顺差增长导致美元需求上升,美债市场稳定,长期债券殖利率下降,使企业融资成本降低,利好资本市场。

 

通过这一策略,川普政府将成功缓解市场恐慌情绪,同时为企业提供了更稳定的融资环境,有助于促进投资和就业增长。

 

  1. 通过利差扩大促使美元贬值,提升出口,激励国内生产

 

在川普新政下,美联储的降息预期以及贸易战带来的跨国利差扩大,使美元自然贬值,形成如下连锁反应:

 

  • 美元贬值→美国出口更具竞争力,有助于高科制造业(特别是AI产品)和农业产品的全球销售。
  • 出口增长带动国内制造业复苏,企业利润上升,就业市场进一步改善。

 

需要强调的是,美元贬值并不会影响美元作为全球储备货币和结算货币的地位,原因如下:

 

  • 美债市场的流动性依然无可替代:全球金融体系仍然依赖美债作为避险资产,美债市场的深度和广度难以被其他货币取代。
  • 美元结算体系的全球孞誉:SWIFT系统以及美元在国际贸易中的主导地位,使美元即便短期贬值,仍然是全球贸易的核心货币。
  • 全球资本市场对美元资产的依赖:美国股市、债市和科技产业仍然是全球投资者的主要资金配置方向,美元资产的吸引力不会因短期贬值而消失(这一波美股下跌,也许正是投资者入场的机会)。

 

结论:川普经济战略的连锁反应

 

川普的四大政策举措形成了一个完整的经济平稳增长健康发展的逻辑链:

 

(1)取缔非法移民 → 房租下降 → 消费者负担减少 → 促进内需

(2)恢复能源开采 + 美欧石化协议 → 油价下降 → 通胀压力降低 → 美联储降息预期增强

(3)加征关税促公平谈判(推动市场经济全球化3.0) → 贸易顺差改善 → 债券殖利率下降 → 资本市场孞心增强

(4)美元贬值(不影响全球储备货币地位) → 出口增长 → 制造业复兴 → 就业增加

 

这将不仅彻底击穿“川普衰退”的谎言,更为美国经济健康可持续增长奠定了坚实基础,带动全球化3.0。

 

然而,这也必须看到,短期内国内外市场的波动、企业的适应过程和社会心理的承受力,都是不可避免的挑战。这也是对川普团队执行力的现实考验——把“刺猬的方向感和狐狸对环境的敏感性”结合起来的大智勇大担当,感召美国人民坚定美好社会生活的孞念,不失常识地成功践行交互主体共生的大战略(Implementing the Grand Strategy of Intersubjective Symbiosism)勇往直前,正如诗句所言:两岸猿声啼不住,轻舟已过万重山!

 

美国经济终将迎来更加光辉的未来(《大格局、大使命、大智慧——写于Trump当选第47任美国总统当日》http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html)。

 

如此一来,所谓Make America Great Again,就只是一种展现生命自组织灵动力与外连接平衡力的国家级示范,川普倡导的MAGA运动,也可以是Make Europe Great Again、Make Asia Great Again、Make Africa Great Again!

 

但愿如此,上帝保佑!

 

孞 烎

2025年3月16日晨于Vancouver

 

 

经过半年多共生经济学(Symbionomics)喂料学习与交互讨论,ChatGPT已经学会用交互主体共生思想理论分析问题和解决问题,下面是ChatGPT对上文内容的高度概括,非常有趣,让我们奇文共欣赏:

 

解读《“川普衰退”,还是“川普MAGA”?》

关于川普第二任期是导致经济衰退(“川普衰退”)还是让美国经济再次繁荣(“川普MAGA”)的争论,如今已成为政治和金融领域的焦点。批评者认为,他在关税、能源和移民方面的激进政策可能引发不稳定,而支持者则强调他第一任期的经济成功,并认为他的第二任期将带来结构性调整,奠定长期增长基础

“川普衰退”论调:政治炒作还是经济现实?

 

自川普正式成为第47任美国总统以来,许多媒体和金融分析师推崇**“川普衰退”**论调,主要基于以下几点:
✅ 2025年初股市波动
✅ 对通胀和美联储可能加息的担忧
✅ 全球贸易局势的不确定性

然而,这一切真的意味着经济衰退,还是只是一种政治化的恐吓?

MAGA 2.0:川普的经济复兴大战略

 

川普的第二任期并非维持现状,而是推动经济的结构性变革,他的四大经济政策旨在纠正拜登时代的低效失衡,恢复市场信心,并确保长期稳定增长

1. 打击非法移民 → 降低生活成本 & 提高工资

✅ 移民减少 → 租房需求下降,房价和租金回落
✅ 非法劳动力减少 → 本土工人工资上升
✅ 减少福利支出 → 更多社会资源惠及美国公民

2. 恢复能源开采 & “美欧石化协议” → 抑制通胀 & 结束俄乌战争

✅ 重启美国石油和天然气开采 → 降低能源价格
✅ 加强美欧能源合作 → 减少欧洲对俄罗斯能源依赖
✅ 削弱俄罗斯战争筹码 → 加速和平谈判进程

3. 关税战略 → 推动市场经济全球化3.0

✅ 以关税为谈判筹码 → 达成公平贸易协议,而非贸易战
✅ 推进“三零规则” → 零关税、零壁垒、零歧视
✅ 供应链优化 → 减少对中国依赖,促进制造业回流

4. 美元贬值 & 出口增长 → 制造业复苏

✅ 美元贬值 → 增强美国出口竞争力
✅ 促进制造业回流 → 创造就业,刺激国内经济增长

最终问题:衰退,还是MAGA复兴?

 

如果川普的政策成功实施,“川普衰退”将被证伪,证明只是政治炒作,而他的经济战略将成为MAGA运动的结构性转型示范

因此,真正的问题不是“川普衰退”是否发生,而是——我们是否正在见证“川普MAGA 2.0:新时代经济的崛起”?

http://symbiosism.com.cn/9725.html ;https://blog.creaders.net/u/34216/202503/510962.html ;http://www.symbiosism.org

“Trump Recession” or “Trump MAGA 2.0”?

The debate over whether Trump’s second term will lead to an economic downturn (“Trump Recession”) or a renewed era of American economic strength (“Trump MAGA”) is now at the center of political and financial discourse. Critics argue that his aggressive policies—on tariffs, energy, and immigration—may trigger instability, while supporters highlight his first-term economic success and claim his second term will bring a structural reset for long-term growth.

The “Trump Recession” Narrative: Political Hype or Economic Reality?

 

Since Trump took office as the 47th President of the United States, media outlets and financial analysts have pushed the “Trump Recession” narrative, citing:
✅ Stock market volatility in early 2025
✅ Concerns about inflation and potential Fed rate hikes
✅ Fears of global trade disruptions

However, is this truly an economic reality, or is it politically motivated fear-mongering?

MAGA 2.0: Trump’s Grand Strategy for Economic Revitalization

 

Trump’s second term is not about maintaining the status quo but driving a structural transformation of the U.S. and global economies. His four major economic policies aim to correct inefficiencies from the Biden era, restore market confidence, and ensure sustainable long-term growth:

1. Immigration Crackdown → Lower Cost of Living & Higher Wages

✅ Less housing demand → Lower rent & housing costs
✅ Fewer illegal workers → Higher wages for American labor
✅ Reduced social spending → More resources for U.S. citizens

2. Energy Revival & “U.S.-EU Petrochemical Agreement” → Inflation Control & Ending the Russia-Ukraine War

✅ Reopening U.S. oil production → Lower energy costs
✅ Strengthening U.S.-Europe energy ties → Reducing dependence on Russian oil
✅ Weakening Russia’s war leverage → Accelerating a peace resolution

3. Tariff Strategy → Driving Market Economy Globalization 3.0

✅ Tariffs as negotiation tools → Fairer trade deals, not trade wars
✅ The “Three-Zero Rule” → Zero Tariffs, Zero Barriers, Zero Discrimination
✅ Strengthened supply chains → Less dependence on China, more U.S. manufacturing

4. Dollar Depreciation & Export Growth → Manufacturing Boom

✅ Weaker dollar → More competitive U.S. exports
✅ Increased manufacturing → Job creation & domestic economic expansion

The Ultimate Question: Recession or MAGA Renaissance?

 

If Trump’s policies succeed, the so-called “Trump Recession” will be debunked as a political myth, while his economic agenda will reinforce the MAGA movement as a model for structural transformation.

Thus, the real question isn’t whether we are facing a “Trump Recession”—but rather, are we witnessing the dawn of Trump’s MAGA 2.0: A New Economic Era

以下cha和GPT的翻译,仅供参考:

 

“Trump Recession” or “Trump MAGA 2.0”?

By Hong Qian

 

The Economic Background of Symbionomics

Symbionomics integrates classical economic principles with the four major discoveries of Austrian economics:

  1. Subjectivity of Value – Consumers’ preferences in selecting differentiated labor and goods.
  2. Nobility of Finance – Self-interest in circulation generates greater benefits for others.
  3. Greatness of Entrepreneurs – Destructive creation leads to new lifestyle choices.
  4. Sustainability of Markets – Decentralized knowledge and individual decision-making, through trial-and-error balancing, drive economic perfection.

By embedding these principles in the framework of Symbionomics, the Symbiotic Economic Effect (self-organizing connectivity in dynamic equilibrium) emerges. This framework follows the “Golden Ratio Function of Economic Health”—a cost/benefit variable function governing economic behavior. It leads to eight fundamental transformations from Marxist distribution economics toward social symbiotic economics, reshaping global economic and political organizational behavior.
*(Excerpt from Symbionomics: The Economics of Intersubjective Symbiosism)

  1. The So-called “Trump Recession”—A Politicized Myth

Since Donald Trump assumed office as the 47th President of the United States, financial markets experienced initial turbulence. The U.S. stock market saw significant declines in the first few weeks of his presidency, prompting media outlets and economists to revive the “Trump Recession” narrative. The warnings ranged from:

  • “A new wave of inflation is imminent in the U.S.”
  • “The Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again.”
  • “Global investment markets face serious risk.”
  • “Stock markets will experience a catastrophic downturn.”

However, these claims remain politically driven rather than economically factual. Trump’s administration swiftly implemented four key actions (as outlined in Trump Proposes 20 Core Promises under the MAGA doctrine), sending clear market signals about the restructuring of the U.S. economy, while gradually redefining the global economic landscape.

  1. Reviewing Trump’s Economic Successes (2017–2021)

During Trump’s first term (2017–2021), the U.S. economy performed exceptionally well, marked by:

  • Robust GDP growth
  • Historic job creation
  • Stock market surges
  • Manufacturing industry revival

Despite the temporary economic downturn caused by COVID-19 in 2020, the U.S. GDP rebounded by an astonishing 33.1% in Q3 2020, demonstrating resilience and strong recovery potential.

Thus, even by conventional GDP metrics, the so-called “Trump Recession” is nothing more than political manipulation rather than an economic reality.

III. Trump’s Economic Transformation Strategy (2025–?)

Warren Buffett famously outlined three rules of making money:

  1. Never lose money.
  2. Never lose money.
  3. Never lose money!

Now, in his second term, Trump is focusing on:

  • Structural economic changes
  • Ensuring the U.S. economy “never loses”

Trump’s Four Strategic Measures to Revitalize the Economy

(55 Days into Office: Key Policies & Market Responses)

  1. Cracking Down on Illegal Immigration → Lower Rent & Cost of Living

The Trump administration has restored the “Remain in Mexico” policy and intensified deportations of illegal immigrants, leading to:

Relief in housing market pressure:

  • Reduced demand for rental properties → Lower rent pricesReduced cost of living

Lower welfare expenses & improved labor market conditions:

  • Cutting social welfare programs for illegal immigrants.
  • Increasing wages for American workers by reducing labor market oversupply.

🔹 Correcting Biden’s Housing Crisis:
This directly corrects the housing inflation crisis caused by Biden-era mass immigration policies, reducing household burdens and boosting consumer confidence.

  1. Restoring Fossil Fuel Production → “U.S.-EU Petrochemical Agreement” + Ending Russia-Ukraine War

Trump’s energy policy shift serves as a core pillar of economic revitalization:

Resuming fossil fuel drilling & exploration

  • Reopening Alaskan oil reserves and federal lands for drilling.
  • Reviving domestic energy production to peak levels.

The U.S.-EU Petrochemical Agreement (proposed by Archer Hong Qian’s Symbionomics)

  • Strengthening U.S.-EU energy cooperation to reduce European dependence on Russian energy.
  • Enhancing economic synergy between the U.S. and Europe.
  • Strategically undermining Russia’s leverage in global energy markets.
    (Read more: From the U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Agreement to the U.S.-Europe Petrochemical Agreement – http://symbiosism.com.cn/9644.html)

Ending the Russia-Ukraine War
With Europe’s energy independence secured, Russia’s energy-based influence weakens, allowing for a negotiated settlement and Russia’s reintegration into global trade networks.

🔹 Chain Reaction: Lower Oil Prices → Reduced Inflation → Fed Rate Cuts → Stock Market Recovery

  1. Trump’s Tariff Strategy → Driving Market Economy Globalization 3.0

Trump is revamping tariff policies by leveraging high tariffs to negotiate fair trade deals. Unlike the protectionist tariffs of historical figures William McKinley (1890s) and Herbert Hoover (1930s):

McKinley’s Era (1890s): Tariffs protected an emerging U.S. economy.
Hoover’s Era (1930s): Tariffs triggered a global trade war, worsening the Great Depression and accelerating World War II.
Trump’s Tariffs (2025-?): Not protectionism, but negotiation leverage to establish:

🌎 The “Three-Zero Rule” of Market Economy Globalization 3.0:

  1. Zero Tariffs – Incentivizing mutual tariff reductions through negotiations.
  2. Zero Barriers – Eliminating unfair market restrictions & trade distortions.
  3. Zero Discrimination – Preventing currency manipulation & industrial subsidies.

🔹 Short-Term Effect: Tariffs Lower U.S. Bond Yield Rates

  • Higher tariffs → Reduced trade deficitStronger U.S. dollar demandBond yield stabilization.
  • This creates a stable financing environment for businesses.
  1. Widening Interest Rate Differentials → Lower Dollar, Higher Exports, Manufacturing Boom

Trump’s policies will drive a natural depreciation of the U.S. dollar, leading to:

A more competitive export market – Boosting AI technology and agricultural exports.
A manufacturing sector revival – Increasing corporate profits and job growth.

🔹 Key Insight: Why Dollar Depreciation Won’t Harm the Global Reserve System

  • U.S. Treasury bonds remain the safest asset globally.
  • The SWIFT dollar settlement system maintains dominance.
  • Global investors still favor U.S. tech & financial markets.

(Current stock market downturn may present a golden investment opportunity.)

  1. Trump’s Economic Strategy: A Chain Reaction for Growth

Trump’s four major economic policies form a self-reinforcing growth cycle:

  1. Immigration crackdown → Lower rent → Higher disposable income → Consumer spending growth
  2. Energy revival + U.S.-EU Petrochemical Agreement → Lower inflation → Fed rate cuts → Market recovery
  3. Tariff negotiations (Market Economy Globalization 3.0) → Trade surplus → Bond yield stability → Investor confidence
  4. Dollar depreciation (without affecting global reserves) → Higher exports → Manufacturing resurgence → More jobs

🔹 This will not only debunk the “Trump Recession” myth but lay the foundation for long-term economic prosperity.

Conclusion: MAGA as a Global Paradigm?

Beyond the U.S., Trump’s MAGA movement could extend to:
Make Europe Great Again
Make Asia Great Again
Make Africa Great Again

May it be so. God bless!

🔹 March 16, 2025 – Vancouver

 

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