我对川普政府关税政策的现实担忧与积极展望

我对川普政府关税政策的现实担忧与积极展望

By Archer Hong Qian

（Intersubjective Symbiosism Foundation）

我对美国第47任总统川普的关税政策的现实担忧与积极展望，源自我将川普政府与历史上的麦金莱（第25任总统）和胡佛（第31任总统）的关税政策的比较，以及全球共生新时代的哲学思考。

一、川普对麦金莱的赞美与关税政策

在2025年1月20日的就职演说中，川普总统对第25任美国总统威廉·麦金莱表示了高度赞赏，甚至提议将德纳里山重新命名为麦金莱山，以纪念这位前总统。麦金莱总统以推行高关税政策闻名，他认为高关税有助于保护美国工业，促进经济繁荣。川普对麦金莱的推崇，可能正如人们所说的，反映了他对保护主义政策的认同，特别是在关税方面。

不过，川普的关税政策旨在通过提高关税，减少贸易逆差，迫使贸易伙伴重新谈判贸易协议，以实现更公平的贸易环境。他希望通过这种方式，促进经济合作，取代制裁对抗，使美国及其盟友回到互利共赢的轨道上。

然而，历史上也有高关税政策导致灾难性后果的案例。这就是1930年的《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》大幅提高关税，引发了世界强国（欧美）间贸易战，加剧了经济大萧条。川普的关税政策是否会重蹈覆辙，取决于全球经济环境、各国的反应以及内外整套政策的具体实施情况。

总的来说，川普对麦金莱总统的赞誉，反映了他对高关税政策的支持，希望通过这种方式实现美国的再次伟大。然而，政策的实际效果需要谨慎评估和适时调整，以结出积极成果。

二、川普 vs. 麦金莱 vs. 胡佛

在美国历史上，关税一直是重要的经济和政治工具。威廉·麦金莱（第25任总统）、赫伯特·胡佛（第31任总统）和唐纳德·川普（第45、47任总统）都曾推行高关税政策，但它们的背景、目标、策略和结果却大不相同。

三、川普 vs. 麦金莱：相似之处

川普的关税政策与麦金莱最相似的地方在于：

1、目的相似：都是为了保护美国制造业

麦金莱在19世纪末推行关税保护美国制造业，确保美国制造业崛起。川普则在21世纪初试图通过高关税让制造业回流，减少对外依赖，并推动美国在全球经济中的竞争力，迎来了美国镀金时代的进步主义辉煌。

2、政策手段相似：通过“关税+谈判”

麦金莱在1897年推行《丁利关税法案》（Dingley Tariff Act），大幅提高进口商品税率，同时鼓励与其他国家商讨关税减让协议。川普通过提高关税，然后用关税作为谈判筹码，迫使其他国家接受更公平的贸易规则（特别是与政治盟友和相关区域，如美加墨自由贸易协定）。

3、结果可能相似：促进美国工业复兴

麦金莱的高关税政策确实帮助美国成为世界工业强国，美国经济增长强劲，制造业竞争力提升。川普希望借助关税迫使制造业回流，使美国城乡社区受益，最终形成新的全球贸易体系。

四、川普 vs. 胡佛：关键区别

虽然川普和胡佛都采取了高关税政策，但它们的背景和策略完全不同。

1、胡佛：被动应对大萧条，误判形势

1929年经济危机爆发，胡佛政府认为高关税可以保护国内市场，挽救美国经济。结果适得其反，全球报复性关税导致美国出口暴跌（从1929年的54亿美元跌至1932年的7.8亿美元），世界贸易总量减少70%，经济进一步恶化。

2、川普：主动调整全球贸易规则，试图减少贸易逆差

川普政府认为全球贸易体系不公平，某些国家（如中国、德国、日本）长期对美贸易顺差，通过补贴、汇率操控、窃取知识产权等手段损害美国企业。川普的加关税是主动出击，以高关税迫使其他国家重新谈判贸易协议（如重新谈判北美自由贸易协定）。

3、关键区别：胡佛的关税政策是在世界经济衰退中“闭关锁国”，导致世界贸易战，而川普的关税政策是，对内“进行结构性改革与提振社会承受力”，对外利用美国的经济优势，重塑全球交互主体共生的“三零贸易规则”体系。

五、川普的关税政策：真正目标

川普的关税政策不仅仅是为了减少贸易逆差，更是为了推动新的全球贸易模式，即交互主体共生（Intersubjective Symbiosism）的“三链趋势 + 三零规则”的全球化体系：

1、三链趋势（The Three-Chain Trend）

✅ 产业链（Production Chain）： 确保制造业合理回流，增强美国本土生产能力，同时与盟友形成更紧密的工业合作。

✅ 供应链（Supply Chain）： 重新布局全球供应网络，减少对特定国家的单一依赖，使关键物资供应更具韧性。

✅ 价值链（Value Chain）： 通过技术创新、数字经济、知识产权保护，提高全球价值链的合理分配，让市场竞争更加公平。

2、三零规则（The Three-Zero Rule）

✅ 零关税（Zero Tariffs）： 以双边或多边谈判换取更多贸易伙伴同意降低关税，实现更自由的全球贸易。

✅ 零壁垒（Zero Barriers）： 打破隐形贸易壁垒，减少不公平的市场准入限制，特别是针对美国产品的限制。

✅ 零歧视（Zero Discrimination）： 反对某些国家利用补贴、操纵汇率等手段进行贸易不公平竞争，确保所有市场参与者在公平竞争环境中获利。

⏩ 最终，川普加关税的目的是为了逼迫全球主要经济体进入自由竞争的“零关税、零壁垒、零歧视”的新型全球化模式，而非真的长期维持高关税。

结论：川普能否避免胡佛的教训，复制麦金莱的成功？

✅ 川普的关税政策更像麦金莱，因为它是主动策略，目标是重塑全球贸易规则，而非保护衰退中的经济。

✅ 但如果川普无法成功谈判并建立新的全球贸易规则，那么它可能会带来类似于胡佛关税政策的负面后果，导致全球经济放缓，贸易冲突升级。

⏩ 最终，川普的成功与否，取决于他是否能对内既不迁就屈服于内部惰性压力，又要避免美国社会走向现实分裂的无序化；对外将高关税政策转换为全球各种经济体交互主体共生的“三零规则”的贸易体系，以MAGA带动全球生命体自强不息、厚德载物——自组织外连接动態平衡！

2025.3.11于Vancouver

My Concerns and Optimistic Outlook on President Trump’s Tariff Policy

Historical Comparison: Trump vs. McKinley vs. Hoover

By Archer Hong Qian

(Intersubjective Symbiosism Foundation)

My concerns and optimistic outlook on President Trump’s tariff policy stem from my comparison of Trump’s administration with the historical tariff policies of President William McKinley (25th President) and President Herbert Hoover (31st President), along with philosophical reflections on the era of global symbiosis.

1. Trump’s Praise for McKinley and His Tariff Policy

During his inaugural address on January 20, 2025, President Trump expressed high praise for the 25th U.S. President, William McKinley, even suggesting renaming Denali Mountain back to Mount McKinley in his honor. President McKinley was known for implementing high tariff policies, believing that high tariffs would protect American industries and promote economic prosperity. Trump’s admiration for McKinley likely reflects his endorsement of protectionist policies, especially in the area of tariffs.

However, Trump’s tariff policy is aimed at increasing tariffs to reduce trade deficits and pressure trade partners into renegotiating agreements to create a fairer trade environment. His ultimate goal is to replace confrontation with economic cooperation and bring the U.S. and its allies back to a path of mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.

Nevertheless, history has also shown disastrous consequences of high tariffs. In 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act significantly increased tariffs, triggering retaliatory trade wars among world powers (Europe and the U.S.), exacerbating the Great Depression. Whether Trump’s tariff policy will follow a similar trajectory depends on the global economic landscape, how other countries respond, and the broader implementation of his domestic and international policies.

Overall, Trump’s admiration for President McKinley reflects his support for high tariffs, hoping that this approach will contribute to making America great again. However, the actual effects of this policy require careful assessment and timely adjustments to achieve positive results.

1. Trump vs. McKinley vs. Hoover: A Historical Comparison

Tariffs have always been a crucial economic and political tool in U.S. history. Presidents William McKinley (25th), Herbert Hoover (31st), and Donald Trump (45th and 47th) all implemented high tariff policies, yet their contexts, objectives, strategies, and outcomes varied significantly.

Comparison of the Tariff Policies of Trump, McKinley, and Hoover

III. Trump vs. McKinley: Similarities

1. Similar Goals: Protecting U.S. Manufacturing

McKinley introduced tariffs in the late 19th century to protect U.S. manufacturing and ensure its rise. Similarly, Trump’s goal in the early 21st century was to use high tariffs to encourage reshoring of manufacturing, reduce external dependence, and strengthen the U.S. position in global economic competition.

2. Similar Policy Approach: Tariffs + Negotiation

In 1897, McKinley implemented the Dingley Tariff Act, significantly increasing import taxes while encouraging negotiations with other nations to reduce tariffs selectively. Likewise, Trump used tariffs as a bargaining chip, pressuring countries into renegotiating trade agreements (e.g., the USMCA replacing NAFTA).

3. Potential Similar Outcomes: U.S. Industrial Revival

McKinley’s high tariff policies contributed to making the U.S. a world industrial powerhouse, boosting economic growth and strengthening manufacturing. Trump hopes that his tariff policies will reshape global trade, benefiting U.S. industry and rural communities, and establishing a new global trade system.

1. Trump vs. Hoover: Key Differences

While both Hoover and Trump implemented high tariffs, their backgrounds and strategies were completely different.

1. Hoover: Reacting Passively to the Great Depression, Misjudging the Situation

When the 1929 economic crisis erupted, Hoover believed high tariffs would protect the domestic market and revive the U.S. economy. However, the result was disastrous—global retaliatory tariffs led to U.S. exports plunging from $5.4 billion in 1929 to $780 million in 1932, and world trade declined by 70%, deepening the economic downturn.

2. Trump: Proactively Reshaping Global Trade Rules to Reduce Trade Deficits

Trump’s administration argued that the global trade system was unfair, with countries like China, Germany, and Japan maintaining trade surpluses with the U.S. by subsidizing industries, manipulating exchange rates, and stealing intellectual property. Trump’s tariff policy was an offensive strategy—raising tariffs to force other nations to renegotiate trade deals.

3. Key Difference: Hoover’s tariffs isolated the U.S., leading to a global trade war, while Trump’s tariffs were part of a broader strategy to reform trade relationships.
4. Trump’s Real Trade Agenda: The Three-Chain Trend & Three-Zero Rules

Trump’s tariff policy goes beyond trade deficits—it seeks to establish a new global trade model, based on Intersubjective Symbiosism and the Three-Chain Trend + Three-Zero Rules framework:

1. The Three-Chain Trend (产业链, 供应链, 价值链)

✅ Production Chain: Ensuring U.S. manufacturing remains competitive while strengthening industrial partnerships with allies.
✅ Supply Chain: Redesigning global supply networks to reduce dependence on single markets and increase resilience.
✅ Value Chain: Promoting technological innovation and fair value distribution in global markets.

2. The Three-Zero Rules (三零规则)

✅ Zero Tariffs: Using bilateral/multilateral negotiations to lower tariffs globally.
✅ Zero Barriers: Eliminating hidden trade barriers that limit market access.
✅ Zero Discrimination: Preventing unfair trade practices like subsidies, currency manipulation, and monopolistic policies.

Ultimately, Trump’s goal is to use tariffs as a tool to push the global economy toward a freer, fairer, and more balanced system, rather than sustaining high tariffs indefinitely.

Conclusion: Can Trump Avoid Hoover’s Mistakes and Replicate McKinley’s Success?

✅ Trump’s tariff strategy is closer to McKinley’s because it is proactive and aimed at global trade reform rather than economic protectionism.
✅ However, if Trump fails to establish new trade rules, his policies could lead to Hoover-like economic disruption, sparking global recession and trade conflicts.

The Final Challenge:

Will Trump’s tariff policies create a new global trade order based on “Zero Tariffs, Zero Barriers, and Zero Discrimination,” or will they lead to economic retaliation and isolation?
His legacy will be defined by how well he navigates these challenges.

📍 March 11, 2025 | Vancouver