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遣返、消化、改变三大策略并举
发布时间:2025/06/12 公司新闻 浏览次数:49
Deportation, Integration, and Transformation: Three Concurrent Strategies to Address Illegal Immigration
解决“非法移民”问题的三大策略:遣返、消化、改变
By Archer Hong Qian · 2025.6.12 · Fes ,Morocco途中
本文提出解决非法移民问题的三策略:遣返、消化、改变。而且,三大策略并举!
美国非法移民问题涉及约1100万人口(2024年数据),占总人口3.3%,对边境安全、劳动力市场、联邦预算及社会稳定构成复杂挑战。遣返非法移民的成本高昂(单人约7000美元,总计770亿美元),引发社会争议(如家庭分离、党争掺和)。考虑到稀土等战略产业的劳动力短缺及全球贸易不平衡和供应链的不确定性加剧问题。
我们提出,川普行政当局在兑现选举承诺,对非法移民进行“强制遣返”和同时,鉴于遣返非法移民的超高成本,推高联邦预算而且附加诸般社会问题,以及稀土国际贸易供应链的不确定性,建议继针对富人的“川普金卡”(500万美元即可获得美国公民身份)之后,再出台一项对非法移民实行“部分消化”政策——不妨称之为“川普铁卡”:即联邦政府把非法移民问题与稀土供应短缺问题结合起来,允许投资位于加利福尼亚州的芒廷山口、阿拉斯加州的博坎山脉和怀俄明州的贝尔洛奇山三地的稀土公司,直接招募“非法移民”劳工,工作三年即可获得美国绿卡甚至公民身份。
除了“强制遣返”“政策消化”,解决“非法移民”问题,更要从“外生法则”的源头上加以改变(Transformation)。基于《大格局、大使命、大智慧——写于Trump当选第47任美国总统当日》(http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html)一文的分析,美国“非法移民”问题的背后,是这世界上还存在人民无法安居乐业发挥生命自组织力与外连接力的攫取型野蛮之地——在那些冒充国家政府的准国家政府、那些冒充政党政治的黑帮团伙的压迫剥削下,要么逼上梁山,要么背井离乡!这道理很简单,设若解决了这种根源性问题,人们在其本土生活得自由自在,谁愿意成群结队离开自己的故土?哪还有什么“走线”“非法移民”对美国的骚扰呢?诚然,野蛮之地的人民自己要组织起来反抗、纾困,这叫“内生性逻辑”,如最近孟加拉、阿根廷的和平改变。但如果特权团伙势力过大,工具(含AI)手段太过野蛮,社会流动完全固化,人民完全陷入可怜的犬儒逐利、戾气冲天而又只能躺平以对,那么,改变野蛮姿态的方式,就必须通过文明的力量,即“制度外部性法则”来强有力地推动!
这不仅是当代美国总统的使命,也是美国的最大利益所在,比如被“非法移民”,现行“单纯经济全球化”产业转移造成“铁锈带”所困!
但是,在美国无论是减税或增税、加息或加息,美国总统都不可能自行其是,没有参众两院表决,他们谁也不能任意命令美联储加息或减息,他们更不能任命50个州的州长,而且,美国投资界有一句谚语:“任何一个坐在白宫的人,对投资市场的影响都是微乎其微的”!
所以,美国总统竞选时无论说得如何天花乱坠,也难以撼动美国经济增长的内生逻辑和路径依赖(自由市场、健全法治、社区自治、科技昌明),说白了单从本土经济效率上做文章,无论他们四年任期怎么努力,都很难有大作为。
但是,美国经济在“外生法则”上,总统只要有足够的胆识,“以外带内”是大有作为的。这可是有先例的,如威尔逊总统果断参加一战,打出了一批文明国家,世界自由市场容量一夜扩容,美国经济也迅速腾飞。小罗斯福机智而果断参与二战,又打出一大批文明国家,特别是战后对德国、日本政治经济的成功改造和扶持,使世界自由市场有更大扩容,不但美国经济迅猛腾飞,美元成为世界经济发展的杠杆和保障,而且带动了一大批邓小平说的“凡是跟美国好的国家,都富裕了”(1979年访美在飞机上答李慎之问)。
这道理也很简单,共生经济学(Symbionomics)认为,“自由市场的容量和质差的改善与地缘贸易摩擦和冲突的减少”成反比例关系,目前的强国“以外生性带动内生性”,帮助“攫取型野蛮之地”的国家和国民,转变成“互利共生型文明之地”的国家和国民,政治经济上就自然获得“降本赋能”的自生力——生命自组织力与外连接平衡力,不仅能让自身经济呈几何级增长,而且是从根本上消除“非法经济”(如毒品)和“非法移民”的出路。许多人在胡扯川普总统是“逆全球化”,其实他要的是更具体的双边、多边谈判(甚至不惜以“加关税”的方式“促谈判”,用“以战终战”的方式“谈出和平共处”)下,实行产业链、供应链、价值链趋势下的“零关税、零壁垒、零歧视”的全球化,比如他45任总统期间签署的“美加墨自由贸易协定”就是范例。
Trump在胜选感言中说了:“I’m too old to worry about who likes me and who dislikes me. I have more important things to do. If you love me, I love you. If you support me, I support you. If you hate me, I don’t care. Life goes on with or without you.”
Trump总统希望把战时乌克兰交给欧洲和乌克兰自己,把中东和平交给以色列和中东各国自己,美国将集中力量处理解决造成“非法移民”及损害经济全球化之根由——印太问题,以便示范阙立生命至上的交互主体共生(Intersubjective Symbiosism)新文明制序,确保每个国家和地区的政治经济文化事务,由其人民及其领导人自己负责任地处理(这也是MAGA的真实含义,见Trump2018年联合国讲话),从而涌现公民、社会、政府三大生命自组织力与外连接平衡力交互共生态势,创建一个人人自美其美、美人之美、美美与共、全息共生的新世界!
这样的定位明晰而堅定,再次任灯塔國總統必会大干一场!
Deportation, Integration, and Transformation: Three Concurrent Strategies to Address Illegal Immigration
By Archer Hong Qian · June 12, 2025 · En route to Fes, Morocco
This article proposes three strategies to tackle the issue of illegal immigration: Deportation, Integration, and Transformation, with all three strategies implemented concurrently.
The illegal immigration issue in the United States involves approximately 11 million individuals (2024 data), accounting for 3.3% of the total population, posing complex challenges to border security, the labor market, federal budget, and social stability. Deporting illegal immigrants incurs significant costs (approximately $7,000 per person, totaling $77 billion), sparking social controversies (such as family separations and partisan disputes). Additionally, labor shortages in strategic industries like rare earths, combined with global trade imbalances and supply chain uncertainties, exacerbate the problem.
We propose that the Trump administration, while fulfilling its campaign promises to enforce “mandatory deportation,” also acknowledges the prohibitively high costs of deportation, which inflate the federal budget and create numerous social issues, as well as the uncertainties in the global rare earth trade supply chain. Following the “Trump Gold Card” policy aimed at wealthy individuals (offering U.S. citizenship for $5 million), we suggest introducing a “Trump Iron Card” policy for “partial integration” of illegal immigrants. This policy would involve the federal government addressing both the illegal immigration issue and the rare earth supply shortage by allowing rare earth companies in Mountain Pass, California; Bokan Mountain, Alaska; and Bear Lodge, Wyoming, to directly recruit “illegal immigrant” laborers. After three years of work, these laborers could obtain a U.S. green card or even citizenship.
Beyond “mandatory deportation” and “policy integration,” addressing the illegal immigration issue requires a fundamental Transformation from the perspective of “exogenous laws.” Drawing on the analysis in A Grand Vision, Mission, and Wisdom—Written on the Day Trump Was Elected the 47th U.S. President (http://symbiosism.com.cn/8893.html), the root cause of the U.S. illegal immigration problem lies in the existence of “exploitative barbaric lands” globally—regions where people cannot live peacefully or realize their self-organizing and externally connective capacities due to oppression and exploitation by pseudo-national governments or criminal political gangs. The logic is straightforward: if these root causes are addressed, enabling people to live freely and prosperously in their homelands, who would choose to leave their native soil in droves? What would become of the “border crossings” and “illegal immigration” disturbances to the U.S.? Indeed, the people in these barbaric lands must organize themselves to resist and seek relief—this is the “endogenous logic,” as seen in recent peaceful transformations in Bangladesh and Argentina. However, if privileged cliques wield excessive power, employ excessively barbaric tools (including AI), and completely stifle social mobility, leaving people trapped in cynical profiteering, rampant hostility, and passive resignation, then transforming these barbaric systems requires the forceful intervention of civilized forces through the “exogenous law of institutional transformation.”
This is not only the mission of the contemporary U.S. president but also aligns with America’s greatest interests, such as addressing the challenges posed by illegal immigration and the “Rust Belt” caused by the industrial shifts of “simplistic economic globalization.”
However, whether it involves tax cuts or increases, or interest rate hikes or reductions, no U.S. president can act unilaterally. Without Congressional approval, they cannot arbitrarily direct the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates, nor can they appoint governors for the 50 states. As a well-known saying in the U.S. investment community goes, “Any person sitting in the White House has a minimal impact on the investment market.”
Thus, no matter how grandiose the campaign promises, it is difficult to shake the endogenous logic and path dependency of U.S. economic growth (free markets, robust rule of law, community autonomy, and technological advancement). In plain terms, focusing solely on domestic economic efficiency during a four-year term yields limited results, no matter how hard a president tries.
Yet, in terms of “exogenous laws,” a president with sufficient boldness can achieve significant outcomes by “leveraging external forces to drive internal progress.” Historical precedents abound: President Wilson decisively entered World War I, fostering a group of civilized nations, expanding the global free market overnight, and propelling U.S. economic growth. President Franklin D. Roosevelt astutely and decisively participated in World War II, creating another wave of civilized nations, particularly through the successful postwar transformation and support of Germany and Japan. This further expanded the global free market, not only spurring rapid U.S. economic growth and establishing the dollar as the lever and guarantor of global economic development but also, as Deng Xiaoping noted during his 1979 U.S. visit, “All countries that align with the U.S. prosper.”
The logic is simple: Symbionomics posits that “the capacity and quality improvement of free markets are inversely proportional to geopolitical trade frictions and conflicts.” By leveraging exogenous forces to drive endogenous progress, powerful nations can help transform “exploitative barbaric lands” into “mutually beneficial civilized lands.” This naturally yields “cost-reduction and empowerment” through self-organizing and externally connective capacities, enabling geometric economic growth and fundamentally eliminating “illegal economies” (e.g., drug trafficking) and “illegal immigration.” Many falsely claim that President Trump is “anti-globalization,” but in reality, he seeks more specific bilateral and multilateral negotiations (even using tariffs to “promote negotiations” and a “war-to-end-war” approach to achieve peaceful coexistence), fostering globalization under trends of zero tariffs, zero barriers, and zero discrimination in industrial, supply, and value chains. A prime example is the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed during his 45th presidency.
In his victory speech, President Trump stated: “I’m too old to worry about who likes me and who dislikes me. I have more important things to do. If you love me, I love you. If you support me, I support you. If you hate me, I don’t care. Life goes on with or without you.”
President Trump hopes to delegate wartime Ukraine to Europe and Ukraine itself, and Middle East peace to Israel and Middle Eastern nations, allowing the U.S. to focus on addressing the root causes of illegal immigration and the harms of economic globalization—such as Indo-Pacific issues. This approach aims to demonstrate a new civilized order of Intersubjective Symbiosism, prioritizing life, ensuring that each nation and region’s political, economic, and cultural affairs are responsibly managed by their people and leaders (the true meaning of MAGA, as articulated in Trump’s 2018 UN speech). This will foster an interactive, symbiotic ecosystem of citizens, society, and government, each with self-organizing and externally connective capacities, creating a new world where everyone thrives in their own beauty, appreciates others’ beauty, and collectively achieves a holistic symbiosis.
This clear and resolute positioning signals that, as the beacon of the “City upon a Hill,” President Trump will achieve great things in his second term!
一、遣返:恢复法治秩序的强硬选项
1.1 执行现况与成本瓶颈
- 2024年,ICE预算为80亿美元,
2025年拟增至100亿。 - 平均遣返成本:7000美元/人。
全面遣返1100万人需770亿,超ICE现有预算十倍。
1.2 优势
- 法治威慑:遏制非法越境。2024年边境逮捕250万,
预计强力执法可降低20%-30%。 - 安全治理:2023年非法移民相关犯罪占全美5%。
- 选民动员:回应保守派关注,就业保护与公共负担议题。
- 缓解住房压力:降低房价,社会增强活力。
1.3 弱点
- 高成本低产出:边际成本极高,难以持续。
- 伦理争议:家庭分离、滥用执法等引发社会抗议。
- 制度瓶颈:移民法院积案超300万,执行进展缓慢。
二、消化:以劳动贡献换取合法身份
2.1 “川普铁卡”设想
允许非法移民在指定稀土矿区(三地:芒廷山口、博坎山脉、
2.2 效益分析
- 经济效益:合法化后每年新增税收200亿美元,
五年增收1000亿。 - 战略红利:稀土产量提升5%-10%,年增约4300吨,
减少对中国依赖。 - 社会稳定:减少地下经济,缓解族群张力,稳定拉美裔选票(
2024年占比18%)。
2.3 风险点
- 政治阻力:保守派视为“大赦”。
- 法律障碍:绿卡配额有限,三年换身份程序或被司法挑战。
- 激励错配:可能吸引新一轮非法越境潮(
2025年预计逮捕300万)。 - 产业吸纳有限:试点区域吸纳能力不足,需扩展产业链支撑。
三、改变:从源头结构治理移民动因
3.1 战略逻辑
非法移民的根源多在“制度失序地带”(如中美洲黑帮控制区)。
3.2 行动路径
- 外援改革:2024年对中美洲援助3亿,2025年拟增至5亿。
- 经济整合:推动“美加墨协定”向中美洲扩展。
- 制度干预:协助打击黑帮、推进法治重建。
- 技术赋能:部署孞態网,强化当地居民的组织协作与信息透明能力。
3.3 战略回报
- 移民潮减少:2025年起可逐步减少非法移民50%以上。
- GDP增长:全球市场扩容带动3%-5%的中长期增长。
- 政治软实力:替代中国在中美洲的影响力,扩大美国价值认同。
四、三大策略比较总览
策略 | 目标 | 成本/效益 | 持久力 | 伦理争议 | 与铁卡兼容性 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
遣返 | 立即移除非法身份 | 成本高(770亿) | 中低 | 高 | 相对对立 |
消化 | 转化为纳税者 | 税收+稀土增长 | 中高 | 可控 | 铁卡为核心 |
改变 | 治本、结构转型 | 长效战略红利 | 高 | 低 | 铁卡为过渡试点 |
五、孞態网嵌入:伦理-技术协同中枢
5.1 定义与功能
孞態网(MindsNetwork)是基于“愛之智慧”
5.2 三策略嵌入逻辑
层级 | 遣返 | 消化(铁卡) | 改变 |
---|---|---|---|
个体层 | 信孞评分识别高风险群体 | 建立劳动孞態档案 | 增强居民组织力 |
组织层 | 优化ICE执法资源 | 企业共生信用评级 | NGO协作孞態节点 |
国家层 | 决策数据可视化 | 合法化政策行为指数 | 外援投放动态反馈 |
5.3 实施示例
- 在芒廷山口矿区部署孞態接口,记录非法移民每日行为、合作态度、
技能成长; - 建立“递进式合法化模型”:高孞值个体可加速获得工作签或绿卡;
- ICE根据孞態分数动态调整资源配置,避免滥捕或误伤;
- 源头国通过孞態节点监控黑帮活动、基层治理表现,
为美方援助提供绩效依据。
六、实施路径与时间表
阶段 | 时间 | 行动要点 |
---|---|---|
短期 | 2025-2027 | 铁卡试点:招募5000人,稀土年产提升5%-10%, |
中期 | 2027-2030 | 扩展试点至农业与建筑,孞態档案制度化。 |
长期 | 2030-2045 | 心联网全球部署,构建行为驱动援助机制。签订《全球共生公约》, |
七、经济影响图表展示
非法移民策略经济影响对比(2025-2030):
项目 | 金额(亿美元) | 说明 |
---|---|---|
遣返成本 | 770 | 一次性高支出,影响财政稳定 |
合法化税收 | 200/年 | 累计五年增收1000亿美元 |
稀土产量增益 | 50 | 铁卡试点期间,年增产+出口替代 |
八、结语:共生秩序的试金石
非法移民问题不是一个“执法问题”,而是文明结构失衡的映射。“
川普总统的使命不只是边境治理,而是通过“Make America Great Again”,建立一个全球可借鉴的治理范式:以铁卡为起点,
从“川普金卡”,扩容到“川普铁卡”?
From “Trump Gold Card” to “Trump Iron Card”?
By Archer Hong Qian
考虑到美国身份高“含金量”与“稀缺性”,同时考虑到遣返非法移民的超高成本,推高联邦预算而且附加诸般棘手的社会政治问题,以及稀土国际贸易的不确定性,建议继“川普金卡”(500万美元即可获得美国公民身份),再出台“川普铁卡”政策:即联邦政府把非法移民问题与稀土问题结合起来,允许投资位于加利福尼亚州的芒廷山口、阿拉斯加州的博坎山脉和怀俄明州的贝尔洛奇山三地的稀土公司,招募“非法移民”劳工,工作三年即可获得美国绿卡甚至公民身份。
Given the high “gold content” and scarcity of U.S. citizenship, as well as the exorbitant costs of deporting undocumented immigrants—which not only strain the federal budget but also bring a host of complex socio-political issues—and considering the uncertainties surrounding international rare earth trade, it is recommended that, following the introduction of the “Trump Gold Card” (which grants U.S. citizenship for an investment of $5 million), a new “Trump Iron Card” policy be launched.
This policy would combine the immigration issue with the strategic rare earth agenda: the federal government would authorize rare earth companies operating in three key locations—Mountain Pass in California, Bokan Mountain in Alaska, and Bear Lodge in Wyoming—to recruit undocumented immigrant labor. By working for three years in these companies, these workers would become eligible for U.S. green cards and potentially full citizenship.
ARCHER HONG QIAN
2025.6.11晚于Royal Mirage International ·Morocco
Trump Iron Card Policy – White Paper Summary Version的中英文双语版本,可用于政策顾问、社交媒体传播或正式提交材料。
Trump Iron Card Policy
White Paper – Summary Version
“Earn America through Labor. Secure America through Strategy.”
1. Policy Background 背景逻辑
In light of:
the high value and scarcity of U.S. citizenship,
the exorbitant fiscal and social cost of deporting undocumented immigrants, and
the geopolitical uncertainties surrounding rare earth supply chains,the Trump administration is advised to introduce a strategic policy upgrade that aligns immigration management with national resource security.
鉴于:
美国身份的高“含金量”与“稀缺性”,
遣返非法移民的超高成本与社会政治风险,
稀土国际贸易的不确定性与地缘风险,
建议在“川普金卡”基础上,推出移民与战略资源联动的升级政策。
2. Core Proposal 政策主张
Launch the Trump Iron Card Program, a labor-for-status pathway:
Allow federal-certified rare earth companies located in:
Mountain Pass, California
Bokan Mountain, Alaska
Bear Lodge, Wyoming
to recruit undocumented immigrant workers;
after 3 years of continuous work, these individuals become eligible for:
U.S. Green Card
and potentially citizenship through a fast-track process.
推出“川普铁卡计划”作为“劳动换身份”的合法通道:
联邦授权以下三地稀土企业:
加州芒廷山口
阿拉斯加博坎山脉
怀俄明贝尔洛奇山
招募无犯罪记录的非法移民;
连续工作满三年,可申请:
美国绿卡
并可进入快速公民入籍通道
3. Policy Rationale 政策原理
战略价值 | 内容说明 |
身份激励 | 川普金卡($5M)面向资本,铁卡面向劳力,实现双向通道 |
稀土安全 | 提升美国产能,削弱对外依赖,增强谈判筹码 |
降本赋能 | 节省遣返成本,转化为劳动红利 |
社会整合 | 将非法边缘人群纳入国家建设体系,减少社会摩擦 |
安全管理 | 联邦企业监管、实名备案、表现评估与淘汰机制并存 |
4. Implementation Plan 实施机制草案
项目 | 内容说明 |
政策代号 | Trump Iron Card Program |
实施对象 | 无犯罪记录、愿意参与计划的非法移民 |
合作企业 | 稀土勘采及加工企业,须获联邦稀土战略资格认证 |
工作年限 | 连续满3年,每年最低工时与考核标准待定 |
激励路径 | 第2年可申请绿卡预审批,第3年可转为入籍申请通道 |
审核与淘汰 | 犯罪、违约、环保违规者将取消资格并依法遣返 |
联合监管 | 联邦移民局 + 劳工部 + 稀土局 + 环保署多机构联控 |
5. Strategic Messaging 战略叙事语汇
“You don’t get America by breaking in.
You earn it—by building it.”
— Trump Iron Card Vision
“不是非法潜入赢得美国,而是通过汗水与忠诚,建设美国!”
对外宣传关键词建议:
Labor for Liberty
Earn Your Place in America
Trump Iron Pathway
Build America, Become American
6. Complementary with Trump Gold Card 金卡与铁卡双轨并行
比较维度 | Trump Gold Card | Trump Iron Card |
适用人群 | 高净值移民 | 非法移民劳力 |
获得路径 | 投资500万美元 | 连续工作3年 |
政策导向 | 引资引智 | 供需导向、降本赋能 |
政治影响 | 精英回流 | 底层合法化、劳力整合 |
身份激励 | 快速入籍 | 绿卡 + 入籍通道 |
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