关于人类战争止战的五种方式——附录“终结乌克兰战争的第三条道路”

翻转极限，觉醒共生

关于人类战争止战的五种方式

——附录参考“终结乌克兰战争的第三条道路”

钱  宏 Archer Hong Qian

从自然法的视角，人类战争是一种特殊的生态战争。

尤其是热兵器时代人类的生态战争，一旦开打，就有一种超强裹挟力，不但可能把整个人类，还会把整个地球生灵裹挟进来，且战争手段无所不用其极，非常残忍而惨烈！一旦开打，就没有人可以“叫停战争”，总是开打容易（往往是一念之间），结束难（不可收拾），而且，迄今为止，人类战争从来没有通过某个人某个机构“仲裁”终结一场战争的先例！

人类战争，尤其是现代战争的止战方式，只有五种：

第一，是综合实力强且往往占正义方，取得彻底胜利，实力不逮且非正义方，服输投降，如一次世界大战、二次世界大战、海湾战争、科索沃战争；

第二，是战争消耗过大，参战方都感到“得不偿失”，就坐到谈判桌上谈谈打打，最后协议停战，或者一方除了得不偿失还有“反战压力”而放弃，前者如朝鲜战争、中东战争、两伊战争、印巴战争，后者如越南战争、阿富汗战争；

第四，是参战方都感到输不起，“没有退路”，手上又有超常武器，如核子、生化、IT-AI武器，最后大家都走向同归于尽，乃至世界末日（连带地球生灵“第六次大灭绝”），这是一种没有赢家的结束战争的方式——不是方式的方式，相信当代人类再怎么狂热和自我膨胀，还是葆有相当的理智，所以还没有先例；

第五，也是最后一种，战争久拖不决，参战方都难以取胜，都深感“疲惫不堪”，到了各方面可承受的极限，突然发现：战争，其实一开始就非必要，而完全是某些观念作祟和误判，导致一场旷日持久的生灵涂炭，大家翻转极限，觉醒后大家坐下来“议和”，最典型的例子，就是三十年战争（1618－1648），议出了一个奠定此后“主权（民族）国家”世界秩序的《威斯特伐利亚和约》。

那么，我要说的是：俄乌“三年战争”结束，有没有仿效“议和”的方式？从而结出一个“化解冲突重建世界新秩序”的历史性成果呢？

我相信，如果当事方（搁置卷入战争是主动被动直接间接），及当代人类，有足够的智慧、勇气担当和坚毅力，比如在议和基础上，最后签订一份“让任何统治全世界的帝国政治企图都成为不可能”（康德《论永久和平》）的《全球共生公约》呢？

对于俄乌三年战争的终结方式，我不但不排除这第五种方式的可能性，而且认定，“翻转极限，觉醒共生”，是当今国际社会主流，应当且最值得努力争取的结果！关键就看当代国际社会及参战方有没有这样的智慧、勇气（担当）和坚毅！！！

这就是我们为什么写《全球共生公约（讨论稿）——重写于乌克兰战争1000天》“时空意间”背景。

《全球共生公约》（讨论稿）——重写于乌克兰战争爆发1000天

http://www.symbiosism.org

Archer Hong Qian

附录：

终结乌克兰战争的第三条道路

坐标温哥华的世界NGO公益组织Intersubjective Symbiosism，重申“俄乌止战/止盈的第三条思路”（刊于香港《文化中国》总第118期）：

 1、俄罗斯军队撤出乌克兰所有占领区（1991年国际公认的边界），归还所有掳掠的乌克兰儿童，乌克兰军队和国际组织保证俄罗斯军队安全撤出;

 2、不过，为了乌克兰顺利重建和消解隐忧，乌克兰对俄罗斯人口占95%的克里米亚等五个有问题地区，以其承诺“采取特殊保护措施”，不妨干脆同意在国际组织（如联合国托管理事会、人权理事会）有效监督下，使之成为五个新的主权国家的选项（因为承诺不可靠，而且承诺很“累”，1994《布达佩斯被忘录》也是承诺）；

 3、作为政治平衡，也不排除俄罗斯最西部不接壤的加里宁州，在国际组织（如联合国托管理事会、人权理事会）有效监督下，成为一个新的主权国家——比如名为“柯尼斯堡共和国”（这里诞生了写出《论永久和平》的大哲学家伊曼努尔·康德、大数学家达维德·希尔伯特和作家E·T·A·霍夫曼）——的选项；

4、同时，作为交换，国际社会可免除对俄罗斯领导人战争罪的追究，尚未罚没的俄罗斯外汇存储，不再扣押——毕竟为世界贡献过罗蒙诺索夫、普希金、托尔斯泰、门捷列夫、柴可夫斯基、安德罗波夫、索尔仁尼琴、叶利钦的俄罗斯，也需要重建，不能真的垮塌了，而且，乌克兰与俄罗斯也需要建立新的交互关系。

止战、止盈的“第三条通路”，如果能实施：

一是可以永久消除了俄罗斯的顾虑（也算给尚有实力的普京一个不怎么值钱，但有必要的面子）和觊觎欧洲国家的口实和跳板；

二是解决了乌克兰国内多元文化（种族）冲突，安心重建家园，乌克兰也可以放心地让克里米亚等地区，成为一个新的犹如瑞士、比利时、芬兰、新加坡、尼德兰、卢森堡，以及波罗的海三国那样“小而美”的国家（都是成功的典范），作为自己的好邻居。

三是可望为重构二战后以联合国为基础的国际安全框架提供范例，为人类制订《全球共生公约》提供现实动力！

俄乌战争终结，改写世界秩序——交互主体共生重塑“国际关系学”（Intersubjective Symbiosism Reshapes “International Relations”）

俄乌战争终结，改写世界秩序——交互主体共生重塑“国际关系学”（Intersubjective Symbiosism Reshapes “International Relations”）

Flip the Limits, Awaken Symbiosis

Five Ways to End Human Wars

——Appendix Reference: “The Third Path to Ending the Ukraine War”

Archer Hong Qian

From the perspective of natural law, human warfare is a unique kind of ecological war.

Especially in the era of firearms, human ecological wars, once ignited, have an extraordinary engulfing power. Not only can they drag all of humanity, but they can also entangle all life on Earth, utilizing all possible means of cruelty and destruction to a devastating degree. Once a war starts, no one can simply “call it off.” Wars are easy to ignite (often in a moment of thought) but extremely difficult to end (and nearly impossible to clean up afterward). Moreover, to date, there has never been a precedent in human history where a war was arbitrated and ended by any single person or institution.

Modern wars can only be ended in five ways:

First, a comprehensive and overwhelming victory is achieved by the stronger and often righteous side, forcing the weaker and unjust side to surrender. Examples include World War I, World War II, the Gulf War, and the Kosovo War.

Second, the war becomes so costly that both sides feel it is “not worth it.” They then negotiate intermittently between battles, ultimately reaching a ceasefire agreement. Alternatively, one side, in addition to finding the war unprofitable, faces massive “anti-war pressure” and chooses to abandon the conflict. The former includes the Korean War, the Middle East Wars, the Iran-Iraq War, and the India-Pakistan Wars, while the latter includes the Vietnam War and the Afghan War.

Third, both parties feel they cannot afford to lose and have no way out, especially when holding extraordinary weapons such as nuclear, biological, or IT-AI weaponry. This scenario leads to mutual destruction, possibly culminating in the end of the world (and the “Sixth Mass Extinction” of Earth’s species). This is a “non-method method” of ending wars, with no winners. Although contemporary humanity may be passionate or self-inflated, a degree of rationality still exists, which is why there has been no precedent for this outcome.

Fourth, prolonged warfare leaves both sides unable to win, exhausting all capabilities and reaching the limit of what is bearable. They suddenly realize that the war was unnecessary from the start and was caused by misguided beliefs and misjudgments, leading to long-term devastation. In this awakening, they choose to “negotiate peace.” The most typical example is the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648), which ended with the Treaty of Westphalia, establishing the “sovereign (nation-state)” world order that followed.

So, I ask: Is it possible for the “three-year war” between Russia and Ukraine to emulate this “negotiation” model? Could this result in a historic achievement to “resolve conflict and rebuild a new world order”?

I believe that if the parties involved (whether actively or passively, directly or indirectly) and contemporary humanity can demonstrate sufficient wisdom, courage, responsibility, and perseverance, it might be possible to negotiate peace and ultimately sign a “Global Symbiosis Pact” (drawing inspiration from Kant’s Perpetual Peace), making any ambition to dominate the world politically an impossibility.

Regarding the end of the three-year Russia-Ukraine war, I not only consider this fifth method plausible but firmly believe that “flipping the limits, awakening symbiosis” should become the mainstream effort of the international community today and is the most worthwhile goal to pursue! The key lies in whether contemporary international society and the warring parties have the wisdom, courage (responsibility), and determination to achieve this!

This is why we wrote Global Symbiosis Pact (Draft)—Rewritten on the 1000th Day of the Ukraine War in the context of time and space.

http://www.symbiosism.org

孞 烎
Morning of November 23, 2024, in Vancouver

Archer Hong Qian
Chairman of the Global Symbiosism Society (CANADA) Academic Committee
Founder of Symbionomics
Academic Committee Member of Shanghai United Nations Studies Association
Member of the Chinese Writers Association
+1 604 690 6088
hongguanworld@gmail.com

Appendix:

The Third Path to Ending the Ukraine War

The Vancouver-based global NGO Intersubjective Symbiosism Foundation reaffirms the “third path to ending/stabilizing the Russia-Ukraine conflict” (published in Cultural China, Issue 118, Hong Kong):

1. Withdrawal of Russian Forces: Russian troops withdraw from all occupied territories in Ukraine (based on the internationally recognized 1991 borders) and return all abducted Ukrainian children. Ukrainian forces and international organizations ensure the safe retreat of Russian forces.
2. Special Protection Measures: To ensure Ukraine’s successful reconstruction and alleviate underlying concerns, Ukraine could agree to let five disputed regions with a 95% Russian population, including Crimea, become new sovereign states under the effective supervision of international organizations (such as the UN Trusteeship Council and Human Rights Council). Historical experience shows that mere promises are often unreliable (e.g., the 1994 Budapest Memorandum).
3. Kaliningrad Independence: As a political balance, Russia’s non-contiguous westernmost region, Kaliningrad, could become a new sovereign state (e.g., “The Republic of Konigsberg”) under international supervision. This region has produced notable figures such as philosopher Immanuel Kant, mathematician David Hilbert, and writer E.T.A. Hoffmann.
4. Sanctions Waiver: As a condition, the international community could exempt Russian leaders from prosecution for war crimes, release frozen Russian foreign reserves, and refrain from further confiscation. After all, Russia has contributed figures such as Lomonosov, Pushkin, Tolstoy, Mendeleev, Tchaikovsky, and others to the world. Its reconstruction should not be overlooked. Moreover, Ukraine and Russia need to establish new reciprocal relations.

If this “third path” can be implemented:

1. Permanent Resolution of Concerns: It would permanently eliminate Russia’s fears of encroachment on Europe and its justifications for further aggression, while providing Putin a face-saving solution to de-escalate tensions.
2. Cultural Reconciliation and Reconstruction: It would resolve Ukraine’s internal multicultural (ethnic) conflicts, enabling a focus on rebuilding. Crimea and other regions could become “small but beautiful” sovereign neighbors, like Switzerland, Belgium, Singapore, and the Baltic states.
3. Reconstruction of the Security Framework: It would offer a practical example for reconstructing the post-World War II international security framework based on the UN, providing real-world impetus for drafting a Global Symbiosis Pact.

The end of the Russia-Ukraine war will reshape international relations theory (“Intersubjective Symbiosism Reshapes “International Relations””).

http://symbiosism.com.cn/8565.html