也说主流经济学为何始终读不懂川普？

也说主流经济学为何始终读不懂川普？

Why Mainstream Economics Continues to Misread Trump?

——从范式冲突到文明跃迁的共生经济学解析

— From Paradigm Conflict to Civilizational Leap: A Symbionomics Interpretation

钱宏（Archer Hong Qian）

导论：不是预测成败，而是范式革命

过去十年间，从克鲁格曼的“衰退倒计时”，到高盛与摩根大通动辄“50%衰退概率”的预警，美国经济一次次用“现实增长”击碎主流经济学的悲观判断。

2025年三季度 GDP 4.3% 年化增长，再次证明：那些以全球化2.0逻辑构建的分析框架，正在越来越不适应一个进入 国家回归、社会韧性、政治回报 时代的美国。

这不是统计误差，而是一场范式革命。

这不是模型出错，而是文明价值参量被更新。

这是从 GDP文明 → GDE文明，

从 理性经济人 → 交互主体共生人，

从 效率逻辑 → 生命自组织连接动态平衡的交互主体共生主义全生态文明道路的历史转型。

Ⅰ：用 GDE 替代 GDP——文明经济学的结构升级

1. GDP 的逻辑极限

GDP 属于工业文明—加法文明的产物。

它衡量的是：

“做了多少事”

却不衡量：

这些事是否是系统意义上的“好事”

是否透支未来

是否撕裂社会

是否损害制度健康

是否削弱文明韧性

是否改善人的真实生活尊严

它无法评估：

社会撕裂

债务依赖

产业空心化

制度疲劳

文明质量

结果是：

“经济增长”可以掩盖“国家退化”

“数字繁荣”可以伴随“社会失序”

这正是主流经济学反复误判的思想根源。

2. 共生经济学的跃迁：GDE 模型

共生经济学（Symbionomics）提出：

GDE（Gross Development of Ecology / Gross Domestic Efficiency）

把 GDP 从“终极目标”降维为“原始输入流量”。

其核心表达式为：

GDE = Σ (GDPᵢ × ηᵢ)

R = GDE / GDP

其中 η（效能系数） 不是技术参数，而是文明参量：

产业与能源主权

社会福祉与生活质量

政治稳定与社会信任

国家韧性与文明持续性

于是，评价体系发生革命性变化：

关税 → 不再是效率损失，而是 η 的结构修复

边境治理 → 不再是劳动力约束，而是社会秩序稳定

制造业回流 → 不再被视为成本，而是文明韧性资产

去政治正确 → 是文明精神结构的 η 修复

“Trump Accounts” → 是社会生命周期 η 的前置锁定（最彻底的长期主义）

换句话说：

川普不是在玩 GDP 游戏，

而是在升级文明操作系统。

Ⅱ：美国与中国——全球化2.0 与 全球化3.0 的制度分水岭

GDE 不是概念，它已在世界现实结构中得到印证。

1. 中国：高 GDP，低 η 的典型结构

近十年中国经济呈现极为典型的结构张力：

高投资 → 低效率

基建繁荣 → 债务雪球

高出口 → 国际摩擦

名义繁荣 → 民生挤压

PPP 已超美国 → 社会焦虑与信任塌缩却加剧

这意味着：

GDP 很大

η 很低

GDE ≈ “虚胖文明”

这是全球化2.0 的末路状态：

制度错位

权力结构僵化

资本与权贵绑定

最终导致：

国家韧性下降

社会生态疲劳

政治合法性被侵蚀

换算到共生经济学语言：

GDP 高 ≠ 国家好

没有 η 的增长，是文明的透支。

2. 美国：从效率文明 → 韧性文明的跃迁

川普时代，美国重新排列国家价值参量：

国家主权

社会韧性

民意回报率

优先于：

抽象效率

模型优雅

金融幻象

于是我们看到：

制造业回流

产业安全边界重建

劳动力秩序恢复

社会信任向 “和平、轻税、公正行政与尚可接受司法” 的共生体经济回流

政治活力重塑民主合法性

这推开了 全球化3.0 的文明之门：

不再崇拜“无限效率”

→ 转入 组织共生人结构健康

不再 worship“抽象市场”

→ 回归 人民经济—国家经济—文明经济三位一体

不再 worship GDP

→ 而强调 GDE 与 η 的长期稳健演化

Ⅲ：“Trump Accounts”：不是福利，是文明金融结构的未来主义与长期主义

1. 它不是“钱”，它是一种结构承诺

Trump Accounts 的核心不是：

孩子未来能领多少钱

而是：

国家以制度方式，为下一代提前锁定 GDE

是“生命经济学”的提前布局

是文明责任的制度化表达

这不是财政工程，

而是一种生命底层平权文明契约。

2. 在 GDE 架构中的意义

Trump Accounts：

锁定社会资本回报结构

稳定家庭预期与社会信心

抵抗金融与社会不确定性

建立国家与公民的“共生契约”

形成跨代 GDE 正反馈系统

这不是福利主义，

这是文明经济金融伦理工程。

它意味着：

美国不只是想“活得更富”，

而是要“活得更有尊严、更稳固、更有未来”。

它使经济不再是“增长机器”，

而成为：

人民—国家—文明的生命共生体。

这正是

生命自组织连接动态平衡的交互主体共生主义全生态文明道路

第一次在现实制度中的清晰彰显。

也可以说

是让生命在确定性中拥抱未来的不确定性

——追寻可能的世界！

3. 一个必须被历史写清楚的判断

Trump Accounts 既不是社会主义的再分配工具，

也不是资本主义的资产化游戏，

而是一条 超越社会主义与资本主义的全生态文明道路——

它让 国家、社会、科技与个体 进入

“生命自组织连接动态平衡的交互主体共生新时代”。

也正因为如此——

偏资本主义逻辑的美国主流经济学看不懂它。

他们仍然被市场效率与资本回报绑定，只能用“政府干预”“福利扩张”“制度扭曲”等旧语言标签化它。

偏社会主义逻辑的欧洲主流经济学同样看不懂它。

他们只看到再分配与托底，不理解文明结构跃迁，不理解“制度责任 + 生命尊严 + 未来锁定”这一新的文明参量。

而“权控市场经济”的中国主流经济学，更不可能理解它。

他们既不是社会主义，也不是资本主义，却试图用“权力合法性 + GDP叙事 + 安全管控”去解释世界，一切文明创新要么被视为危险威胁，要么被视为不可理喻。

于是，我们看到一种极具文明象征意味的全球现象：

他们及他们背后的媒体与叙事机器，

要么哀鸿怒骂、宣泄焦虑、集体沦陷；

要么固步自封、视而不见、拒绝理解；

要么继续用旧话语框架，掩盖自己无力进入新时代的失语状态。

他们不是不同意，

而是 没有能力理解一个已经超出他们所处文明维度所认知的制度创新。

结论：为什么主流经济学必然失效？

因为：

世界升级了

国家逻辑升级了

文明参量升级了

而主流经济学仍停在：

全球化2.0

理性经济人

线性效率范式

川普主义并不是“异端政治经济学”的胜利，而是：

全球化3.0 的先发文明实践

GDE时代人类第一次结构性尝试

从 GDP文明 → GDE文明的历史转折

国际社会，要么有智慧、有勇气、有能力争取入局，一起安全繁荣；要么成为愚蠢、怯懦、“一念之差”连累本国人民吃苦的麻烦制造者（千万别钻所谓“权力真空”的牛角尖），而自甘出局！

提出“仨自组织人”即“组织共生人”共生经济学

之所以能够解析这一切，

不是因为它“更聪明”，

而是因为它：

洞悉到政治—经济—文化不可分，分则必然结构失衡；

重新把“人—社会—文明” 带回经济学的哲学原点；

一切人文、科技、宗教、文化、文明生活方式史，都是思想史，而“全部历史的第一个前提无疑是有生命的个人的存在”。

所以，回到个人、家庭、社区生命，重塑生命自组织连接动态平衡的交互主体共生主义全生态文明道路，

作为文明方向标，重建生活方式的意义与人类未来的秩序，

世界各国和国际社会要解决问题，特别是解决自身的时代性问题，此为势在必行之道，别无选择！

2025年12月30日晨

温哥华 · 心约开关居拟

Why Mainstream Economics Continues to Misread Trump? — From Paradigm Conflict to Civilizational Leap: A Symbionomics Interpretation

Archer Hong Qian

Introduction: This Is Not About Forecasting Success or Failure—It Is a Paradigm Revolution

Over the past decade, from Paul Krugman’s “recession countdown” to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan’s habitual “50% recession probability” alerts, the U.S. economy has repeatedly used real-world growth to shatter mainstream economics’ pessimistic expectations.
The 4.3% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 once again proves: analytical frameworks built upon Globalization 2.0 logic are increasingly unable to understand a United States that has entered an era defined by national re-centering, social resilience, and political return-on-governance.

This is not a statistical deviation, but a paradigm revolution.
This is not a modeling error, but a restructuring of civilizational value parameters.

It marks a historic transition:

• from GDP Civilization → GDE Civilization
• from Rational Economic Man → Intersubjective Symbiosis Man
• from Efficiency Logic → a Full-Ecological Civilizational Path of Intersubjective Symbiosism grounded in the Dynamic Balance of Life’s Self-Organizing Connectivity

1. Replacing GDP with GDE — A Structural Upgrade in Civilizational Economics
2. The Structural Limits of GDP

GDP is a product of industrial civilization and additive logic.

It measures:

• “How much activity was done.”

But it does not measure:

• Whether these activities are systemically good
• Whether they exhaust the future
• Whether they tear society apart
• Whether they damage institutional health
• Whether they weaken civilizational resilience
• Whether they improve real human dignity and life quality

It cannot evaluate:

• social fragmentation
• debt dependency
• industrial hollowing
• institutional fatigue
• civilizational quality

Thus:

“Economic growth” can disguise national deterioration,
“Numerical prosperity” can coexist with social disorder.

This is the fundamental ideological reason why mainstream economics repeatedly misjudges reality.

2. Symbionomics and the Leap to GDE

Symbionomics proposes:

GDE — Gross Development of Ecology / Gross Domestic Efficiency
downgrades GDP from “ultimate goal” to merely “input flow.”

Its core formula is:

GDE = Σ (GDPᵢ × ηᵢ)
R = GDE / GDP

Here, η (the Efficiency-Civilization Coefficient) is not a technical indicator; it is a civilizational parameter, including:

• industrial & energy sovereignty
• social well-being & lived quality of life
• political stability & social trust
• national resilience & civilizational sustainability

Thus, the entire evaluative logic is structurally rewritten:

• Tariffs → no longer “efficiency loss,” but η restoration
• Border governance → no longer “labor restriction,” but social order stability
• Manufacturing reshoring → no longer “cost,” but civilizational resilience
• De-politicization of ideological correctness → η repair of cultural-civilizational structure
• Trump Accounts → pre-locking of η across the social life-cycle — the purest form of long-termism

In other words:

Trump is not playing the GDP game.
He is upgrading the civilizational operating system.

2. The U.S. and China — The Institutional Watershed Between Globalization 2.0 and Globalization 3.0

GDE is not an abstract invention; it has already been tested in global structural reality.

1. China — High GDP but Low η: A Typical Structure

Over the past decade, China exhibits a distinctive structural tension:

• high investment → low efficiency
• infrastructure boom → debt snowball
• strong exports → escalating geopolitical friction
• nominal prosperity → livelihood compression
• PPP surpassing the U.S. → yet rising social anxiety and collapsing trust

Meaning:

GDP is huge
η is weak
GDE ≈ “swollen civilization without strength.”

This is the terminal condition of Globalization 2.0:

• institutional misalignment
• ossified power structures
• fused interests between capital and political elites

Ultimately resulting in:

• falling national resilience
• fatigued social ecology
• eroded political legitimacy

In Symbionomics language:

High GDP ≠ a good nation.
Growth without η is civilizational overdraft.

2. The U.S. — From Efficiency Civilization to Resilience Civilization

Under Trump, the United States reordered its national value structure:

Priority to:

national sovereignty
social resilience
civic return-on-governance

over:

abstract efficiency
model elegance
financial illusions

Thus we witness:

• manufacturing revival
• reestablishment of industrial-security boundaries
• restoration of labor order
• the return of trust toward “peace, light taxation, fair administration, and tolerable justice” as the living ecology of society
• political vitality rebuilding democratic legitimacy

This opens the door to Globalization 3.0:

• No longer worshiping “infinite efficiency,”
  → shifting toward structural health of the symbiotic organizational person
• No longer worshiping abstract markets,
  → returning to people’s economy + national economy + civilizational economy
• No longer worshiping GDP,
  → prioritizing long-term stability of GDE and η

III. “Trump Accounts”: Not Welfare — A Future-Oriented Civilizational Financial Architecture

1. It Is Not “Money.” It Is a Structural Commitment

The essence of Trump Accounts is not:

how much money a child will receive in the future.

Instead:

• the nation structurally pre-locks GDE for the next generation
• it is pre-layout of life economics
• an institutional crystallization of civilizational responsibility

This is not a fiscal engineering program.
It is a civilizational social covenant of life equity at the deepest level.

2. Its Meaning Within the GDE Architecture

Trump Accounts:

• stabilizes the structure of social capital returns
• anchors family expectations and social confidence
• absorbs financial and social uncertainty
• establishes a symbiotic covenant between nation and citizen
• creates cross-generational positive GDE feedback cycles

This is not welfare policy.
This is a civilizational financial-ethical project.

It means:

America does not merely intend to “live richer,”
but to live with greater dignity, stability, and future assurance.

The economy is no longer just a “growth machine,”
but becomes:

a living symbiosis of people, nation, and civilization.

This is the first clear real-world manifestation of a full-ecological civilizational path of Intersubjective Symbiosism grounded in the dynamic balance of life’s self-organizing connectivity.

It allows life to embrace the uncertainty of the future
within a framework of secured certainty —
the pursuit of possible worlds.

A Judgment History Must Record Clearly

Trump Accounts is neither a socialist redistribution device
nor a capitalist assetization scheme.

It represents a full-ecological civilizational pathway that transcends both socialism and capitalism—
ushering state, society, technology, and the individual
into a new era of
Intersubjective Symbiosism grounded in life’s self-organizing dynamic balance.

And precisely because of this—

👉 Mainstream economics in the United States, bound by capitalist logic, cannot understand it.
Locked into market efficiency and capital-return frameworks, it can only label it using old vocabulary such as “government intervention,” “welfare expansion,” or “institutional distortion.”

👉 Mainstream European economics, rooted in socialist logic, also cannot understand it.
They see redistribution and safety nets, but fail to recognize civilizational structural transformation — they cannot grasp the new parameters of “institutional responsibility + life dignity + future pre-locking.”

👉 And China’s “power-controlled market economy” logic understands it even less.
Neither socialist nor capitalist, yet insisting on interpreting the world through power legitimacy + GDP narrative + security control, it either treats every civilizational innovation as a threat or as foolishness.

Thus emerges a deeply symbolic global reality:

Their academia, media, and narrative machines—

• either rage in panic and despair,
• or retreat into denial and blindness,
• or cling to obsolete discourse frameworks to cover their incapacity to enter a new age.

They do not merely disagree.
They lack the civilizational dimension required to comprehend an innovation that has already surpassed their worldview.

Conclusion: Why Must Mainstream Economics Ultimately Fail?

Because:

the world has upgraded,
national logic has upgraded,
civilizational parameters have upgraded,

while mainstream economics remains trapped in:

Globalization 2.0
Rational Economic Man
linear efficiency models

Trumpism is not the triumph of a “heterodox political economy.”
It is:

• the earliest civilizational practice of Globalization 3.0
• humanity’s first structural experiment of the GDE era
• a historic transition from GDP Civilization → GDE Civilization

Symbionomics can interpret this not because it is “clever,” but because:

• it recognizes politics, economy, and culture as inseparable — division guarantees structural imbalance;
• it restores people, society, and civilization to economics’ philosophical foundation;
• and, by repositioning life itself,
  it reorients humanity toward
  a full-ecological civilizational path of Intersubjective Symbiosism grounded in the dynamic balance of life’s self-organizing connectivity—
  as the compass for rebuilding meaning, lifestyle, and global order.

Nations and the international community either possess the wisdom, courage, and capacity to join and thrive,
or they will — through ignorance, timidity, or fatal misjudgment —
exclude themselves while burdening their own people with unnecessary suffering.

There is no third path.

December 30, 2025
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