制度外部性的终结

制度外部性的终结

The End of Institutional Externality

——76年体制存续机制的三大死结与未来出路

——The Three Fatal Knots of the 76-Year Regime Survival Mechanism and the Path Forward Future

​
Archer Hong Qian
2025年11月15日于新加坡-柔佛-新加坡

内容提要

《制度外部性的终结》是一篇最新体制批判力作，作者Archer Hong Qian以“制度外部性”（Institutional Externality）理论为分析框架：一个体制若长期依赖对“非自己人”的单向掠夺而非内部效率与开放存续，必然陷入熵增效应，而对“吃异己者→不感恩→自我膨胀→反目成仇”的死循环。

The End of Institutional Externality is a groundbreaking 2025 critique of the Chinese regime. Archer Hong Qian proposes the “Institutional Externality” theory: any system that survives primarily through one-way plunder of “non-insiders” rather than internal efficiency and openness is doomed to escalating entropy and the fatal cycle of devouring outsiders → ingratitude → self-inflation → betrayal and enmity.

文章以76年历史为证：前30年体制内吃体制外（主要是农民）与前苏联，后40年吃全球化红利和美国市场，一旦制度外部性出现断供，所有矛盾就会暴发，2021年后三大死结渐显：青年上升通道断裂、地方政府与国企资不抵债、疯狂勒索非“自己人”的民营经济杀鸡取卵竭泽而渔。

Using 76 years of history as evidence: the first 30 years fed on peasants and the Soviet Union; the next 40 years consumed global dividends and the American market. Since 2021, with external sources exhausted, three fatal knots have emerged: total blockage of youth mobility, insolvency of local governments and SOEs, and predatory, kill-the-goose extortion of the private sector.

矛盾袭三代虽盘子不同，但本质一贯，斗争哲学、自我核心霸权叙事、永远执政的红色基因。作者断言：任何话术都遮掩不了事实真相，唯一生路是抛弃“党国殖官主义”，以共生经济学（Symbionomics）思维为底盘，内外开放生命自组织连接动态平衡的交互主体共生机体，重建主权在民的现代文明国家，或能避免与前苏联同列历史博物馆的命运。

Though Mao, Deng, and Xi ruled over plates of different sizes, the underlying logic never changed: struggle philosophy, hegemonic core narrative, and the red gene of eternal one-party rule.The author asserts that no new slogan can cover the truth. The only path to survival is to completely abandon “party-state colonial-officialism” and rebuild a modern civilized nation, grounded in Symbionomics — an open, self-organizing, dynamically balanced symbiotic system of citizens, communities, enterprises, and government — thereby restoring true popular sovereignty and avoiding the Soviet Union’s fate of occupying an entire hall in history Seguenzamuseum.

一、理论基点：什么是“制度外部性”？
I. Theoretical Foundation: What Is “Institutional Externality”?

在制度经济学中，“制度外部性”（Institutional Externality）指的是：一个体制的存续、增长与稳定，并不主要依赖内部的生产效率与创新能力，而是依赖对体制边界之外的人群、资源、制度持续进行单向、无偿或低偿的汲取。这种汲取一旦成为体制的“主要营养管道”，制度本身就异化为一种“寄生型熵减机器”。其铁律般的动力链是：

1 吃外部性资源（把“非自己人”的血汗当作免费午餐）；

2 自我膨胀幻觉（把外部输血产生的增长全部记到“制度优越性”账上）；

3 反咬外部世界或内部贡献者（外部性枯竭时，把锅甩给被吃对象，煽动极端民族主义，外战内嚇，“人矿”“韭菜”转“炮灰”）。

二、76年制度的运作方式：吃“非自己人” → 不感恩 → 自我膨胀 → 反目成仇

II. How the 76-Year Regime Operates: Feed on “Non-Insiders” → Ingratitude → Self-Inflation → Betrayal

一个反复验证过的政治热力学定律：凡是缺乏国民、社会生命自组织连接活力，而靠枪杆子建立，靠制度外部性续命的殖官主义共同体政权，最后必然陷入不感恩、必然陷入自我膨胀、必然陷入反目成仇。

76年的中国体制，不过是这一规律最完整、最惨烈的又一次当代演示。

   （1）1949-1978前三十年：靠体制外农民与苏联“一边倒”养体制内“自己人”

制度外部性具体来源：

• 城乡二元户籍把8亿农民锁死在土地上，工农业产品剪刀差30年抽走8,000-12,000亿（相当于当时GDP的30-40%）；

• 公社化强征“余粮”（实际上往往连口粮都不剩），导致远比1959-1961三年大饥荒和“文革”“上山下乡”灾祸深重的后果；

• “向苏联一边倒”换来156个重点工业项目（苏联援华总金额约25亿美元冷战最大单笔援助），奠定了全部工业骨架。

稍有成绩就陷入这样套路：

• 不感恩：农民被官方叙事定性为“小资产阶级汪洋大海”“天然落后的阶级”，需要不断被“改造”；

• 自我膨胀：宣称“中国道路是人类最先进道路”，短短二十几年就“跑步进入共产主义”；

• 反目成仇：文革把知识分子、老干部、富农、甚至普通农民分别打成“阶级敌人”，1964-1965年《九评苏共》把昨天的“老大哥”骂成“社会帝国主义”。

制度外部性越丰沛，内部清洗越血腥——这是铁律。

    （2）1978-2018后四十年，靠全球制度外部性“吃世界”外部性具体来源（累计规模触目惊心）

• 美国给予最惠国待遇+推动中国降低门槛2001年入WTO，2001-2018年中国贸易顺差累计超10万亿美元；

• 外资直接投资累计超过2.2万亿美元，附带技术、品牌、管理经验全部打包赠送；

• “低人权优势”压低劳工工资+环境成本外置+土地财政，使中国成为“世界工厂”。

同样三部曲：

• 不感恩：所有增长都被宣传为“中国特色社会主义道路制度优势”（不让人民知道从外部性受益，如至2018年早已经GDP总量世界第二，中国政府还在接受日本政府援助，不仅让人民知道，反而一再煽动仇日恨美情绪）；

• 自我膨胀：2010年代起反复宣称“东升西降”战狼外交，“双赢就是中国赢两次”“世界将来就两个国家：一个中国，一个外国”；

• 反目成仇：2017年后美国新政府只不过提出要求中国“结构性改革”以便开放2001年加入WTO早就承诺也是中国自身本该做的市场开放，结果迅速翻脸，把美国定性为“敌对势力”，把在华外资企业视为“渗透工具”，对内以“共同富裕”“防止资本无序扩张”为名，对互联网、民办教育、房地产、教培行业一轮轮精准收割。

于是，一条政治生存铁律贯通76年，说得难听点：“谁曾经供养我，我就把谁吃干抹净，然后反过来咬死谁。”

三、当外部性结束：陷入不可逆的三大死结
III. When the Externality Ends: Trapped in Three Irreversible Fatal Knots

2021-2025年，全球化红利开始断供，制度外部性从“丰沛”转为“枯竭”。

任何新话术（新质生产力、双循环、共同富裕）都只是遮羞布，本质是熵增效应再也藏不住的社会性犬儒逐利、戾气冲天、啃老躺平。

    死结一：年轻世代上升通道彻底断裂

• 体制内铁饭碗报考热度2024年平均200:1，2025年预计300:1；


• 体制外35岁失业潮、996福报、层层“卡点”晋升；


• 结果：躺平、润、戾气、出生率断崖（2024年人口负增长已超200万）。
这是外部性消失后最先爆炸的社会炸弹。

    死结二：冗官、冗兵、冗费，政府与企业双双“资不抵债”

• 2024年土地出让收入暴跌70%，地方债总额已超120万亿；


• 基层公务员降薪、奖金取消、延迟退休、社保延缴接连上马；


• 国企资产负债率普遍80-90%，靠政策性破产与债务展期吊命。
当外部输血没了，行政机器只能靠“吃财政转移支付”与“吃未来”续命。

    死结三：开始疯狂勒索最能创造价值的民营经济


民营经济“56789”（贡献50%以上税收、60%以上GDP、70%以上技术创新、80%以上城镇就业、90%以上企业数量）成了最后一块肥肉

• 2021-2025年，互联网巨头被罚款总额超300亿；

• 合规成本、环保整改、数据安全审查、反垄断调查、“远洋捕捞”“税务追溯”轮番上阵；

• 房地产企业被“躺平式爆雷”，地方平台公司债务转移给民企兜底。
农民→外资→民企，依次被吃，这是制度外部性枯竭后的标准路径。

四、矛、盾、袭的“体制基因一致性”：盘子不同，吃法相同
IV. The Consistent Systemic DNA from Mao to Deng to Xi: Different plate sizes, identical eating style

矛时代：一元化领导 + 继续革命 → 通过内部政治运动持续吞吃农民、知识分子、苏联援助；盾及后盾时代：核心说了算 + 改革开放 → 通过“向美国一边倒”吃光全球化红利；袭时代：打江山坐江山定于一尊 + 向所有政企事机构派出黨委、黨组、巡视组 → 全球化红利没了，就吃民企、吃中产、吃年轻人未来。

三代共同的红色基因是：

1 斗争哲学（永远需要“敌人”来转移矛盾）；

2 叙事霸权（把所有外部性输血包装成“制度优越性”）；

3 永远执政（“永远听黨的话，跟黨走”）。

三代盘子大小变了，吃异己者的筷子没变。
外部性一断供，只能进入三大死结同一终局：内卷→报复→崩耗。

五、向死而生：唯一出路——共生经济学 Symbionomics
V. From Certain Death to Rebirth: The Only Way Out – Symbionomics

当制度外部性被彻底断供，体制站在“To be or not to be”的悬崖口。

唯一活路：抛弃76年来自欺欺人的整套话术和谎言，以共生经济学（Symbionomics）为新底盘，重建“主权在民”的现代文明国家。

共生经济学的核心洞见是：
真正可持续的制度，必须从“吃外部性”转向“对内开发”，让公民、家庭、社区、企业、政府生命自组织连接动态平衡的交互主体共生。

具体方向：

• 还权于民：确立“财产私有、权力公有”边界，新闻自由、地方自治；

• 财税联邦化，让资源在社会基层实现正向循环，而非层层上缴再分配，黨务不吃财政；

• 政治体制非黨派出所：司法行政独立，从“占有型”转向“服务型”，官员从“管民”变为“雇员”；

• 经济模式从“掠夺式试错-纠偏”转向“分布式竞相合作式演化”；

• 国家认同从“家（黨）国殖官主义”回归“人民主权、公民契约”。

总之，从“体制熵减靠掠夺”转向“文明自我负熵靠共生”，是中国76年吃制度外部性周期循环走到尽头时，唯一还能把自己从深渊里拉上来的钢索。

抓住它，就向死而生；

错过它，就继续吃到最后一口，然后和苏联一样，在历史博物馆里占一整个展厅。

一句话，向死而生的出路：

以共生经济学（Symbionomics）理论，超越“黨国殖官主义情结”，重建“主权在民不在官”的现代文明国家！

参考文献：
1. 《重建人民共和国》（1986）Rebuilding the Republic (1986)
2. 《和解的年代：从共产主义到共生主义》（2007）The Age of Reconciliation: From Communism to Symbionism (2007)
3. 《一个民族的灵魂：从文化再造到中国再造》（2007）A Nation’s Soul: From Cultural Reconstruction to the Reconstruction of China (2007)
4. 《中国：共生崛起》（2012）China: Symbiotic Rise (2012)
5. 《原德：大国哲学》（2012）Yuan De: Philosophy of a Great Power (2012)
6. 《全球共生：化解冲突重建世界秩序的中国学派》（2018）Global Symbiosis: A Chinese School for Resolving Conflict and Rebuilding World Order (2018)
7. 《共生简史：一种约定创新生活方式的精神力量》（2021）A Brief History of Symbiosis: The Spiritual Power of an Agreed Innovative Way of Life (2021)
8. 《怎么办？——原德：大国政治探微》（2021）What Is to Be Done? — Yuan De: Explorations into Great-Power Politics (2021)
9. 《共生经济学：21世纪LIFE-AI-TRUST行为的因应之道》（2023）Symbionomics: Responses to 21st-Century LIFE-AI-TRUST Behavior (2023)
10. 《民有：成功国家的根基》（2025）Owned by the People: The Foundation of Successful Nations (2025)

The End of Institutional Externality
——The Three Fatal Knots of the 76-Year Regime Survival Mechanism and the Path Forward

Archer Hong Qian

15 November 2025, Singapore-Johor-Singapore

Abstract

The End of Institutional Externality is a groundbreaking 2025 critique of the Chinese regime. Archer Hong Qian proposes the “Institutional Externality” theory: any system that survives primarily through one-way plunder of “non-insiders” rather than internal efficiency and openness is doomed to escalating entropy and the fatal cycle of devouring outsiders → ingratitude → self-inflation → betrayal and enmity.

Using 76 years of history as evidence: the first 30 years fed on peasants and the Soviet Union; the next 40 years consumed global dividends and the American market. Since 2021, with external sources exhausted, three fatal knots have emerged: total blockage of youth mobility, insolvency of local governments and SOEs, and predatory, kill-the-goose extortion of the private sector.

Though Mao, Deng, and Xi ruled over plates of different sizes, the underlying logic never changed: struggle philosophy, hegemonic core narrative, and the red gene of eternal one-party rule.The author asserts that no new slogan can cover the truth. The only path to survival is to completely abandon “party-state colonial-officialism” and rebuild a modern civilized nation, grounded in Symbionomics — an open, self-organizing, dynamically balanced symbiotic system of citizens, communities, enterprises, and government — thereby restoring true popular sovereignty and avoiding the Soviet Union’s fate of occupying an entire hall in history Seguenzamuseum.

I. Theoretical Foundation: What Is “Institutional Externality”?

In institutional economics, “Institutional Externality” refers to a situation in which the survival, growth, and stability of a regime do not primarily depend on internal productive efficiency or innovation capacity, but on the continuous one-way, unpaid or low-paid extraction from people, resources, and institutions beyond the regime’s own boundaries. Once this extraction becomes the regime’s primary nutrient pipeline, the institution itself mutates into a parasitic entropy-reduction machine.
Its iron-clad dynamic chain is:
1. Consume external resources (treating the blood and sweat of “non-insiders” as a free lunch);
2. Generate inflated self-delusion (crediting all growth from external transfusion entirely to “institutional superiority”);
3. Bite the hand that fed it (when the externality dries up, shift all blame onto the devoured, whip up extreme nationalism, launch external wars or internal purges, turning “human mines” and “leeks” into cannon fodder).
This is a repeatedly verified law of political thermodynamics: any colonial-officialist community regime built on the barrel of a gun, lacking genuine vitality of self-organization among its citizens and society, and sustained solely by institutional externalities, will inevitably be ungrateful, inevitably inflate itself, and inevitably turn on its benefactors.
The 76-year Chinese regime is simply the most complete and tragic contemporary demonstration of this law yet again.

II. How the 76-Year Regime Operates: Feed on “Non-Insiders” → Ingratitude → Self-Inflation → Betrayal

(1) 1949-1978: The first 30 years – feeding the “insiders” with rural peasants and Soviet “leaning to one side”
Concrete sources of institutional externality:
• The urban-rural dual household registration system locked 800 million peasants to the land; the price scissors between industrial and agricultural products extracted 8,000–12,000 billion RMB over 30 years (30–40% of contemporaneous GDP);
• People’s communes forcibly requisitioned “surplus grain” (often leaving not even enough for subsistence), producing consequences far graver than the Great Famine of 1959–1961, the Cultural Revolution, and the “up to the mountains, down to the countryside” movement combined;
• “Leaning entirely to the Soviet side” obtained the 156 key industrial projects (total Soviet aid ≈ US$2.5 billion – the largest single Cold War aid package), laying the entire industrial skeleton.
Whenever any achievement appeared, the pattern repeated:
• Ingratitude: peasants were officially narrated as “a vast ocean of petty bourgeoisie,” a “naturally backward class” requiring constant “remolding”;
• Self-inflation: proclaiming that “China’s road is the most advanced path for mankind,” claiming to “march into communism at a run” in just a couple of decades;
• Betrayal: the Cultural Revolution labeled intellectuals, old cadres, rich peasants, and ordinary farmers as “class enemies”; the Nine Commentaries of 1964–1965 denounced yesterday’s “Big Brother” as “social-imperialism.”
The more abundant the institutional externality, the bloodier the internal purges – this is iron law.
(2) 1978-2018: The next 40 years – devouring the world through global institutional externality
Concrete sources (staggering cumulative scale):
• The United States granted Most Favored Nation status and pushed China into the WTO in 2001 with lowered thresholds; from 2001–2018 China accumulated over US$10 trillion in trade surpluses;
• Cumulative FDI exceeded US$2.2 trillion, complete with technology, brands, and management expertise gift-wrapped;
• “Low human-rights advantage” – suppressed wages, externalized environmental costs, and land finance – turned China into the world’s factory.
The same three-act tragedy:
• Ingratitude: all growth was propagandized as proof of the “superiority of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics” (while concealing from the people how much was gained from externalities – even as late as 2018, when China was already the world’s second-largest economy, the government still accepted Japanese ODA while simultaneously stoking anti-Japanese and anti-American hatred);
• Self-inflation: from the 2010s onward, repeated claims of “the East rises, the West falls,” wolf-warrior diplomacy, “win-win means China wins twice,” and “in the future there will only be two countries: China and Foreign”;
• Betrayal: after 2017, when the new U.S. administration merely demanded the “structural reforms” China had long promised upon WTO entry (and which China itself should have done), Beijing instantly flipped, labeled America “the primary hostile force,” treated foreign enterprises as “tools of infiltration,” and domestically, under banners like “common prosperity” and “preventing disorderly expansion of capital,” systematically harvested the internet, private education, real estate, and tutoring industries round after round.
Thus, a single iron law of political survival runs through all 76 years – crudely put: “Whoever once fed me, I will devour completely, then turn around and kill.”
III. When the Externality Ends: Trapped in Three Irreversible Fatal Knots
2021–2025: global dividends have largely dried up; institutional externality has shifted from abundance to exhaustion.
All new slogans (new productive forces, dual circulation, common prosperity) are nothing but fig leaves; the underlying reality is an entropy-increasing structure that can no longer hide the pervasive social cynicism, profiteering, rage, and lying-flat.
Fatal Knot 1: Complete blockage of upward mobility for the young generation
• Civil-service examination competition reached 200:1 on average in 2024, projected 300:1 in 2025;
• Outside the system: 35-year-old layoffs, 996 culture, endless gatekeeping;
• Consequences: lying flat, running abroad, seething resentment, fertility collapse (negative population growth exceeded 2 million in 2024).
This is the first social bomb to detonate once externality disappears.
Fatal Knot 2: Bloated officials, bloated military, bloated expenditure – governments and enterprises alike insolvent
• 2024 land-transfer income plummeted 70%, total local debt already exceeds 120 trillion RMB;
• Grassroots civil servants face salary cuts, bonus cancellations, delayed retirement, and deferred pension payments one after another;
• SOE debt ratios generally 80–90%, surviving only on policy bankruptcies and debt rollovers.
With external transfusions gone, the administrative machine can only survive by eating fiscal transfers and eating the future.
Fatal Knot 3: Frantic extortion of the private economy that actually creates value
The private sector – the famous “56789” (50%+ of tax revenue, 60%+ of GDP, 70%+ of technological innovation, 80%+ of urban employment, 90%+ of enterprises) – has become the last juicy piece of meat:
• 2021–2025: internet giants fined a cumulative total exceeding 30 billion RMB;
• Waves of compliance costs, environmental rectification, data-security reviews, antitrust investigations, “deep-sea fishing” tax audits, retroactive tax collection;
• Real-estate firms allowed to explode in “lying-flat” fashion, with local financing platform debts transferred to private firms to foot the bill.
Peasants → foreign capital → private enterprises – devoured in sequence. This is the standard sequence once institutional externality runs dry.
IV. The Consistent Systemic DNA from Mao to Deng to Xi: Different plate sizes, identical eating style
Mao era: unitary leadership + continuous revolution → devour peasants, intellectuals, and Soviet aid through endless political campaigns;
Deng and post-Deng era: the core has the final say + reform and opening → devour global dividends by “leaning entirely to the American side”;
Xi era: those who conquered the country now rule it, one supreme leader + party committees, party groups, and inspection teams dispatched to every political, enterprise, and institutional body → with global dividends gone, devour private enterprises, the middle class, and the future of the young.
The shared red genes of all three generations:
1. Struggle philosophy (always needing an “enemy” to shift contradictions);
2. Narrative hegemony (packaging every external transfusion as “institutional superiority”);
3. Eternal rule (“forever listen to the Party, forever follow the Party”).
The plate size changed; the chopsticks used to eat outsiders did not.
Once externality is cut off, all three generations can only march toward the same finale: involution → retaliation → collapse.
V. From Certain Death to Rebirth: The Only Way Out – Symbionomics
When institutional externality is completely severed, the regime stands at the edge of “To be or not to be.”
The only path to survival is to abandon the entire 76-year repertoire of self-deceiving slogans and lies, and, with Symbionomics as the new foundation, rebuild a modern civilized nation in which sovereignty resides with the people.
=A0The core insight of Symbionomics is that truly sustainable institutions must shift from “eating externalities” to “internal co-creation,” enabling citizens, families, communities, enterprises, and government to form dynamically balanced, self-organizing, living symbiotic networks.
Concrete directions:
• Return power to the people: establish clear boundaries of “private property, public power,” freedom of the press, local autonomy;
• Fiscal federalism: let resources circulate positively at the grassroots rather than be siphoned upward for redistribution; party affairs must not feed on the public purse;
• Depoliticize the bureaucracy and judiciary: transform from an occupying regime to a service regime; turn officials from “rulers of the people” into “employees of the people”;
• Shift the economic model from “predatory trial-and-error followed by correction” to “distributed, competitive-cooperative evolution”;
• Re-ground national identity in popular sovereignty and civic contract rather than “party-state colonial-officialism.”
In short, moving from “entropy reduction through plunder” to “civilizational self-generated negative entropy through symbiosis” is the only steel cable that can still pull China back from the abyss after 76 years of cycling through institutional externality.
Grasp it, and we live through death.
Miss it, and we finish the last bite, then occupy an entire hall in the museum of history alongside the Soviet Union.
One sentence summary of the path from death to rebirth:
Using the theory of Symbionomics, transcend the “party-state colonial-officialist complex” and rebuild a modern civilized nation whose sovereignty belongs to the people, not to officials.

References (selected):

1. Rebuilding the Republic (1986)
2. The Age of Reconciliation: From Communism to Symbionism (2007)
3. A Nation’s Soul: From Cultural Reconstruction to the Reconstruction of China (2007)
4. China: Symbiotic Rise (2012)
5. Yuan De: Philosophy of a Great Power (2012)
6. Global Symbiosis: A Chinese School for Resolving Conflict and Rebuilding World Order (2018)
7. A Brief History of Symbiosis: The Spiritual Power of an Agreed Innovative Way of Life (2021)
8. What Is to Be Done? — Yuan De: Explorations into Great-Power Politics (2021)
9. Symbionomics: Responses to 21st-Century LIFE-AI-TRUST Behavior (2023)
10. Owned by the People: The Foundation of Successful Nations (2025)